focus and discipline

There are two aspects of American politics that I find painful - length and complexity. The former is the interminable process from Primary to General that ought to be shrunk dramatically. I proposed an approach to reducing the time and cost of elections a while back - I still think it's applicable. In the same post I also talked about a simpler and less cumbersome voting process; it and the vote counting part seem complex as hell.

In my last post about a third party, d.eris' blog and the post he pointed me to (whose numeric analysis of the recent election is very interesting), we're all talking about a 3rd party in American politics.

I wonder if the biggest obstacle for a 3rd party is the agony of the primary/general election and then the horrible voting process - who in their right mind would want to run there?

According to most pundits, the recent general election had a strong turnout, which equated to a mere 51% of the electorate actually voting! So President Obama's 52% popular vote equates to only 26% of the electorate vs. the 25% that Senator McCain received. Of those that voted and those that didn't, I imagine it broke down like this:

1. I'm a member of the D or R party and I always vote for our candidate
2. I love the R or D candidate and am voting for him
3. I hate the R or D candidate and will vote the other way so he doesn't win
4. Neither candidate is great, I'll vote for the one I perceive to be least bad
5. Neither candidate is great, but D or R stands for XXX and I will support him because of that issue
6. I'd really like to vote but it's a real pain and/or I'm tired of this process and can't wait 'til it's over and won't vote
7. My vote won't make a difference either way/don't really care, won't vote

In all of this, we know for sure that the 1-5 basically split their vote between the two parties, and if 6-7 had voted for a separate party, that 3rd party would have won a landslide victory with half again as many votes as either D or R. #3-7 might have gone elsewhere if there had been a compelling alternative and the act of voting was easier.

Compelling Alternative

What if a prospective candidate's platform were ethics-based (per the Jacksonian Party post) and they committed to only one term? In other words - vote for me, here are my ethics, and I won't run again, which means if I win, I don't need to raise money for reelection or campaign - my decisions will be based on my ethics platform, and I will not be influenced by lobbies.

I think a candidate like this has a good chance to create a stir and even win, if their platform is compelling to at least #s 3-5 & 7.

Voting Simplified

Now imagine if all citizens were able to vote from home (or from their mobile phones), and imagine that like Australia, people were required by law to vote. These two things will never happen per the comments to this post - incumbent politicians will NOT allow voting to be made easier or require all voters to vote. They like it as difficult as it is, and only want the voters that voted for them to vote.

If by some miracle voting became simpler and all voters were required to vote, then the election process would be cheap, cheap, cheap, and much easier. A significant percentage of a candidate's budget goes towards building massive local machines to get the vote out. Combine not having to spend that because voting is mandatory with social networks and the internet and the media to directly reach your audience, and you have a whole new ballgame.

Back to Reality

Let's face it - this aint going to happen in America. So what's possible? d.eris suggested we must first build confidence in, and a perception of viability for a 3rd party. I'm not sure that's needed - you're not trying to win people who vote. At a minimum, it feels like #4 & 7 would be inclined to vote for a separate candidate, and some of #5 might join the party as well. Additional momentum can be built based on a compelling voice, and the strategy I outlined above (a commitment to only run once) might achieve that, especially when combined with an ethics-based platform. The critical success factor though is being ULTRA-precise about the target audience (if it's just #4, 5 & 7, then focus ONLY on those people); do not fall into the R/D trap of trying to win everyone. Commit to and engage your audience ONLY - if you happen to get votes from others, that's their problem, not yours.

One thing that pervades the electorate is the feeling that politicians can't be trusted. If it is possible to be the trustworthy candidate, by admitting your motivation and your strategy, this might be a winner. Here are the promises I'd make (in no particular order):

• Will only serve ONE term
• Will not spend more than $X on this campaign - most of the outreach will be done electronically at very low cost, there will be no advertising
• Will NOT accept any donations once the campaign is over - no way to be bribed while in office
• Will make no more than three program (ex. change education in XXX way) commitments, because that's all you can do in one term
• Will clearly describe leadership style integrity, transparency, accountability
• Will never spin

Net

With a commitment to Ethics, a precisely targeted campaign, and a clearly articulated platform, it is possible for a 3rd party to coalesce, and achieve critical mass. It will only work with discipline and a strict, rigid adherence to the strategy.