$18.69

Some of you noticed that I tried Google's AdSense service about three weeks ago, I'm now happily back to being ad-free. It was an interesting experiment, I tried to keep them unobtrusive, despite using three distribution mechanisms - the site, search and the feed.

As you've no-doubt guessed, I "earned" $18.69 over this time. I had intended to contribute another $18.69, and take the total $37.38 and donate it to a local charity which my employer would match, to get to $74.76. 

But even now I am unable to get to the money I earned - Google won't allow me to provide payment information - it says I must reach the $10 earning threshold first. I'm pretty sure that $18.69 is greater than $10, but I defer to the very bright minds at Google - they must know of a newer math.

Speaking of which, I read today that Google now owns 3% of the global ad market, which gives them something akin to Wal-Mart's (who has 4% of the worldwide retail market) economic stature. The author (Christa Quarles) went on to suggest that Google should next move into the more lucrative corporate IT provisioning business, where they can provide cloud-based services to companies (they currently have 0.1% share in this market).

I don't agree. For Google to branch out into this space, they would need a level of sales and marketing and support that IMO is inconsistent with their business model. Unless of course they have innovated a whole new business model. And even then, I think they should stay true to their core business.

It's telling that we are comparing the market might of Google to that of Wal-Mart. Think about Wal-Mart's market dictatorial capability. They tell their suppliers what they want and at what price, and the suppliers acquiesce. Google seemingly has the might to tell people (it's channel partners like me) that math as they understood it doesn't apply anymore, and I suppose I have to acquiesce too.

Have both organizations gotten too big? Here's an interesting thought - some of the more diversified companies have suffered the most unhappy fates in this current economic situation - from GE to Citi to GM to AIG. Isn't this a bizarre reversal? We're taught to diversify our portfolios to protect from specific reversals, but looking at this market situation, it looks like a bad strategy.

Or was it? One common denominator with these poor performers is that they all own a finance company (GE Capital, GMAC, etc.). I believe even Wal-Mart had explored the idea of creating a bank. If they'd all only been banks (no trading, insurance, etc.), they would have been subject to more stringent regulatory oversight, and perhaps never been able to get into this situation. But with their diversification, and current rules, at the highest level, they were able to choose which regulator applied to them, and of course they chose the most lenient, which gave them the most latitude.

I hope Google doesn't go into finance - it could be their kiss of death, especially if their new math is anything like the math that our friends at AIG, Citi, GMAC, etc. use. And it'd be a certainty that I'll never see my $18.69.