~synthesis~

healthy wallets, healthy bodies, healthier US?

Why are healthcare costs around the world rising so dramatically? The costs of innovation, lawsuits, and an aging population are among the “claimed” reasons. Of course they have an effect, but are they the only reason?

If you have an expense account or your parents’ credit card, your “generosity” with their money is much greater than with your own money. You’ll buy more expensive things and be more careless with them - after all - you aren't paying for it.

Health insurance = other people’s money.

If it's your own hard-earned money, you’re more likely to think before you spend; put more effort into preventing expenditures (live healthily), be diligent with your medicines, etc.

American health care was regulated [fascinating read] in the early 1900s; it resulted in better hospitals, but initially very few licensed physicians; this scarcity increased costs, and health insurance was created to ensure that patients could pay their bills. Insurance became pervasive through the 1960-‘70s, and when Medicare and Medicaid were introduced, we were off to the races. By distancing the cost from the consumer, people progressively became more cavalier.

The very existence of health insurance assures excess.

Any issue/injury/ailment/ingrown toenail is worthy of a doctor/hospital visit. We aren’t paying so what the hell! As coverage became based on procedures, doctors "found themselves" doing more tests, but since we aren’t paying, test away!

Costs escalated, insurance companies panicked. Rates increased, employers panicked. Lobbying increased, politicians panicked. Laws were written, and now citizens are panicked.

But then the economy began to slow, unemployment rose, and more people were without coverage.

This increased the use of Health Savings Accounts (HSA) and High Deductible Health Plans (HDHP), which allow individuals (and employers) to set aside before-tax monies in a savings account for routine medical care, and purchase lower premium disaster coverage with high deductibles as a backstop.

Now it's your money, from your account, and you're more careful. The effect? Health care spending growth slowed!

We not only think twice about going to the hospital, we even pay more attention to diet and behavior to keep our costs down. Doctors, knowing it’s the patient’s money, are ordering less tests and expensive or frivolous extras. When GE implemented an HDHP-type plan for its employees, there was a noticeable decline in the use of their own expensive imaging (MRI, CT) products! Not good for GE, but absolutely indicative of better overall behavior. :-)

If you’ve read this blog for a while, you know I’m a proponent of universal health care. But it is subject to abuse and mismanagement. I believe all Americans should have healthcare, but let's learn from previous mistakes. Our implementation should be universal, prioritize patient health, and save money by mandating a minimum of HSA/HDHP for everyone:

• Government pays HSA + HDHP for those earning up to 1.5 times the poverty level.
• Government pays HSA only for those earning up to 2.5 times the poverty level.
• All government employees (including ALL elected officials) receive HSA + HDHP.
• All others are self/employer insured.
• All insurance providers must offer HDHP for anyone without descrimination.
• HSA is tax-free/pre-tax; any unspent $ can roll into an IRA or next year’s HSA. 
• This supplants Medicare/Medicaid and any prescription drug benefits.
• High school graduates qualify for lower rates, as do those with a post-high school certification (see below).

Potential upside:

• Doctors say they can’t assure health because patients don’t take care of themselves or take their medicines properly. This doesn’t solve that, but people might pay more attention if it’s their money, and spend a little today (preventative) to avoid spending a lot tomorrow.
• Less excess = lower costs.
• More self-care = healthier people.
• Direct payment by the patient via HSA (debit card) reduces administrative costs.
• The elimination of Medicare/Medicaid in favor of subsidized HSA/HDHP for those that need it most.

Education mandate - it seems obvious that the more educated you are, the healthier your are, and the longer you live. Now there’s data. So why not tie universal health care to universal education? It only makes sense.

Health insurance costs in the developed world are rising much faster than GDP, and the US is in the worst shape. This approach blends universal access with the very American idea that that we should all have a vested stake.

If we see success (lower costs, improved well being) with this approach, maybe we should also try it for public education?

America is a unique country - it's approach to social services (health, education, etc.) should also be unique.

life choice

Politics in America is polarized and infantile; governing in America is even worse. Governing should be about the whole country; it should prioritize the well-being of all citizens now and in the future. It does neither. Short of a revolution, there doesn’t seem to be a way to change this dynamic. Or is there?

What if we put the most fracturing issue of our time on the table? If both sides can find common ground on this, their most polarizing issue, might that open the door to further compromise?

If the first presidential debate did anything, it showed that one event (in a campaign that began more than 18 months ago) + the right conversation + the right audience + the right visibility can markedly alter the election dynamic.

Maybe a similar approach can be used to alter the governing dynamic.

Abortion - more than taxes or socialism, abortion is the litmus test in American politics. It is the pivotal question when choosing Supreme Court Justices; it plays a role in our choice of political candidates; and it is an enormous sink of effort, money, passion, and divisiveness in America. This despite clear laws for almost forty (40) years.

It is a complex argument fraught with nuance, but I think the politics are simpler; and if presented in the right way, perhaps open to compromise.

Background:

1. Over 80% of Americans belong to a religion that proscribes sex outside wedlock.
2. 70% of boys and girls in America have had intercourse by their 19th birthday.
3. By age 44, 95% of Americans have had premarital sex.
4. 80% of young evangelical Christians have had premarital sex; 1/3 of their unplanned pregnancies ended in abortion.
5. Abortions have shrunk from 1.61 million in 1990 to 1.21 million in 2007.
6. 49% of pregnancies in 2006 were unintended; 43% of these ended in abortion.

With this undisputed data as context, what if we were able to bring the five most ardent and visible advocates/politicians on either side to a televised panel, where a moderator asked each of the ten people these questions:

1. Do you agree that in a perfect world, no fetus is destroyed; that every child is wanted and lives a healthy and fulfilling life?
2. Do you agree that every abortion is a tragedy; and that we should do everything possible to prevent it?
3. Do you agree that the best way to prevent an abortion is to prevent unwanted pregnancy?
4. Do you agree that the data above shows that we are failing to prevent abortion more than one million times a year?
5. Is creating a national goal to dramatically reduce unwanted pregnancies and the resulting abortions something you would support wholeheartedly?
6. Do you agree that reducing unwanted pregnancies and thus the more than one million abortions would by far be your highest priority?

Would all ten would unanimously reply “yes” to every question?? Would you?

I think so; and I would too.

How could they not? How could you not??

What then have we accomplished? We’ve bypassed the questions of a woman’s right to choose, and when life begins; and gotten agreement that preventing unwanted pregnancy is paramount. We have recognized that while there may be areas where we disagree, it is possible to find common ground, and more critically to act based on that common ground to serve the greater good.

During 9-11, Congress united with the White House to pass laws aimed at protecting America. We acted as one in response to the killing of nearly 3,000 Americans. The issue before us was without party affiliation; and we were able to rise together and as one to make progress.

Can we now act as one to dramatically reduce the more than one million abortions that happen in our country every year? Surely that is an even greater calamity?

Might this act of cooperation lead to new avenues of accord between the Left and the Right?

Is that not after all the essence of governing?

the single biggest issue in this election...

...is not the economy, unemployment, terrorism, reigning in Wall Street, foreign policy, gay rights, or anything like that.

There is only ONE thing that matters in this election and neither the debate moderators, the media, or the candidates will discuss it.

If I were moderating the debate tonight, my instructions to the debaters:

1. You will get as much time as I decide you need. It will not be equal.
2. I will ask the questions, and keep asking until I get satisfactory answers.
3. I have no tolerance for BS.

My first (and perhaps only) question to President Obama:

If you win a second term, you will most likely inherit a Republican House and a Democratic Senate. The last two years marked the least effective Congress/White House combination in memory. You've failed at working with this Congress for two years - how will this change? What assurances does the electorate have that you will be able to get ANYTHING done?

My first (and perhaps only) question to Governor Romney:

If you win the presidency, you will most likely inherit a Republican House and a Democratic Senate. The Republican caucus is dominated by a Tea Party fringe which does not suffer centrists gladly. Speaker Boehner was rendered impotent by this caucus. How will you get ANYTHING done knowing the obstacles you face in a partisan House, and an obstreperous Senate?

This may take a while...

America's greatest challenge is a Congress + White House so infantile that they would make a room full of drooling two-year old pouters and bullies appear coherent, dignified, and civlized.

is foxnews secretly pro-obama?

What if candidate Romney pulls out a miracle and not only wins the Presidency, but also drags a Republican majority into both the Senate and the House?

Whom, in the months to follow is going to be most disappointed and dejected? I say it is FoxNews, and especially Sean Hannity and Ann Coulter (the prince and princess of vitriol).

Why would these two who revel in reviling anything and everything Liberal, who can spin the smallest Democratic act into a demonic plot to strike down all God-fearing Republican Christians be sad?

Because they’d have no-one to hate. The “lame-stream” Liberal media (MSNBC) would own the self-righteous, angst-filled hate advantage, and take over the mantle of official spokesnetwork for the easily-manipulated unwashed masses. Hannity, Coulter, Limbaugh and the rest, all ardent supporters of Mitt, the Tea Party, and all things Sarah Palin would languish on their airwaves with nothing to complain about and no-one to insult.

Imagine that.

My assessment of the coverage mix at Fox/MSNBC:

• 5% our candidate/party looking good.
• 15% their candidate/party looking bad.
• 70% analysis affirming how their bad behavior makes “us” look good.
• 10% update (+ lots of video) of brain dead, ultra-tanned mom arrested for bringing daughter to tanning salon.

To fill the airwaves (and garner watchers and advertising $$) the best possible outcome for Fox/MSNBC is a president of one party, and a split in the House/Senate. This way everyone gets to have someone hate-worthy in power, and of course spend interminable hours with sycophantic "analysts" critiquing minutia in order to perpetuate the hatred.

Many think today’s professional athletes sacrificed the intellectual for the physical; that they are largely one-dimensional beasts whose sole focus is winning at all costs and cashing in on that big paycheck. With American Football, it is this plus the desire to physically dominate and punish your opponent in every way.

I was watching a replay of the Giants-Eagles NFL football game last night; these teams are in the same division, play each other twice a year, and typically for one to succeed, the other must fail. A factor that no-doubt contributes to their intense and long-standing rivalry. Suffice it to say, these players get paid to convincingly decimate each other.

One might even compare them to the Democrats-Republicans in politics, though we’d have to recognize that except for Joe the Plumber (assistant plumber turned actual Republican candidate in the 9th Congressional district of Ohio), most politicians have a meaningful university degree (often post-graduate), earned on the basis of intellectual ability vs. physical prowess.

How interesting then that once the final whistle had blown and the high-stakes, intense game had ended, we saw Jason Pierre-Paul (job: pummel Vick) hug Michael Vick, who hugged him back. This is not unusual - if you watch sports at all, you know this type of inter-team camaraderie is common amongst even long-standing rivals.

What does it say about our politicians when these physically gifted, but purportedly dumb jocks are able to transcend the field of battle and recognize that there is a time and place for everything? They compete with passion during the game, but once it ends, treat each other with care and civility, after all, much more unites than divides.

And yet, our better-educated, more sophisticated, and worldlier politicians are unable to overcome their in-election combativeness to do as the electorate commanded - govern.

We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.

These are the closing words of Abraham Lincoln’s first inaugural address. But he had no experience of Fox/MSNBC - a force united to break our bonds of affection; a force stronger even than the Parties' candidates; and a force whose survival depends on discord.

There is but one way to overcome this force. Hmmm... where is that remote?

fear foiled

Why is Mitt Romney not winning? He should be - his background is perfect - proven business man (Bain), proven state leader (Gov. MA), proven repairer of things gone bad (Olympics). On top of this, he’s a good person - faithful to his family, committed to his community, strong moral foundation, etc.

And yet the incumbent who has presided over the largest national debt in history, middling economic performance, difficult times internationally, massive unemployment, and has Hussein for a middle name is preferred.

How?

Is it because Mitt is so far up the ivory tower that he simply doesn’t connect to “regular” people? Is it because his plans are ambiguous? Is it because he equivocates too much? I don’t think it’s any of this. Compare Romney to W. Bush, and you don’t see major differences (President Bush never equivocated; but he was perceived as a bumbling idiot, no-one will accuse Romney of being an idiot so that evens out).

President Bush won because he sparked fear in his constituency. He (and Karl Rove) polarized their base against Gore (and Liberals) to the point where its fervency was so strong, it bled to the center to make the election very close. The Florida debacle did tip the balance, but fear made it close enough for Florida to matter.

In 2008, candidate Obama won because he caused people who had never done so to vote; his rhetoric combined with the absurdity of Palin assured a win. That fervor abated by 2010, allowing the Tea Party to take control of the Republican machine and dominate the House.

Over the last year, Tea Party fervor has abated some (abysmal Primary candidates), and while they still have a hold on Party policy, they are not controlling the campaign dialogue.

Here’s the problem - Team Romney (despite the best efforts of the FoxNews whackos) has not been able to spark enough fear in the base. Potential wedgies:

• Economy - everyone is resigned to a crappy economy; the EU crisis and China’s strength have taken their toll. No-one believes either side can really do much.
• Unemployment - no one believes either candidate’s claims that they can fix this, also a wash.
• Foreign Policy - as much as the media cares about this, most Americans just don’t.
• Redistribution - what crap! A society can't exist without redistribution; Romney has already said wealthier Americans should get a smaller Medicare benefit.
• Obamacare - well... sucks that Romney implemented 1.0.
• Terrorism - whatever - we’ve all got terror fatigue.
• Obama the Socialist - those who believe this are already voting Republican - the rest don’t see it as real or a big enough threat.
• Obama the Muslim - he’s been President for four years, and no-one’s singing the call to prayers from the White House balcony.

See what I mean? The fanatical Left and fanatical Right will vote for whomever their Party nominates - that’s a given. But this leaves Romney way short.

The “issues” aren’t scary enough, and no amount of Hannity/O’Reilly spin can change that. The tried and true Karl Rove strategy is failing despite the money they’ve raised and the vitriol they are spouting.

Romney could ask Grover Norquist to have every Republican candidate sign a pledge promising to cooperate with a Romney White House; it’s hard to imagine that happening, but it might be the one legitimate opportunity to one-up Obama... But then again, people hate Congress.

So, short of Romney so flustering Obama during the debates that he admits to being a closet Muslim who intends to give Palestine nukes, the Democrats have fallen into the good fortune of a country so resigned to its fate that it can’t be scared into voting for Change.

an imperfect union

A democracy is characterized by the regular, peaceful transition of power based on equitable choice (one citizen, one vote). Voting is the act of choosing the best person(s) to represent your voice in the governing process. Governing is the enforcement of laws and creation of policies that improve the citizens’ wellbeing today and tomorrow.

Seems simple enough. What could possibly go wrong?

Ego.

Today “our” elected officials care little about governing; winning is the only thing, and they will do anything, anything to win.

Why do we tolerate this?

1. We are stupidly easy to manipulate.
2. We have very selective memories.
3. We can’t see past our fears.

Think back to any primary election - did even one candidate treat their opponents with respect? Can you name them? If you can (John Huntsman), did they have hope of winning? What happened?

What does it say when candidates within a Party family so viciously eviscerate each other? Sadly, despite the hate, the “base” rallies around the winner because they've been manipulated into thinking the other Party is even more evil.

Candidates actively avoid “thinking” voters; no one wants an open, cogent discussion on policy bereft of vitriol. Look at the Party platforms - they only come up when an opponent finds a weakness to exploit. They are completely ignored by the candidate.

How to win?

1. Raise a ton of $$.
2. Identify “wedge issues.”
3. Pepper the electorate with abusive ads.

Without #1, everything else is moot - fund raising is THE priority for every Party, even above the candidate. How to raise money? #2. Even the smartest among us are susceptible to #2. (Pun intended.) Pollsters are the most influential people in any campaign; they “help” the candidate focus the message for maximum provocation and agitation, and thus more donations. Evil.

Witness the recent Romney defense of free speech - no coherent person associates the embassy’s actions as siding with terrorists, but then coherent people aren’t the target audience, are they. He just needed to paint his opponent as pro-Islamic fanaticism and anti-America, and thus raise more $$. The President’s reaction was also wrong - why stoop to your opponent’s level? Maybe because that's also your level.

With the secret recording of the Romney fund raising speech, the Democrats (and media) went off on how evil Romney is because he doesn’t care about half the country. Romney was responding to a question about campaign strategy, not governing; he said the pro-Obama 47% will never vote for him anyway, so why bother campaigning to them. I guarantee President/candidate Obama has spoken similarly about demographics and districts that hate him. Romney was pandering to his audience and he chose words that resonated with them; tell me Obama has never done that.

When an election is based ONLY on vilification, both the winners and losers emerge as blood enemies. Their abject hatred prevents any hope of collaboration (governing), and even if they can rise above it, they can’t be seen to cooperate or #1 dries up.

What about the victims of our politicians’ hatred - the Chinese, Latinos, Muslims, Olympics, gays, pro/anti abortionists, etc? Can you guess at their “favorability” towards America, Americans, and the American government??

Are you really surprised that with every election in the last 30+ years, our country has become less happy, less sustainable, more hateful, and more hated? A recent president once said, "Civility is not a tactic or a sentiment. It is the determined choice of trust over cynicism, of community over chaos." Can you guess who it was?

It is time for we, the voters to reject cynicism and chaos, and reform our imperfect union.

my first vote

Yesterday was a good day. I’ve been a fan of the Dallas Cowboys since I was 12 (yes - it was the cheerleaders), and they won their first game of the season vs. the team that undid them last year, the NY Giants. :-)! The Cowboys won because both the offense and defense played well; last year it was one or the other, and they sucked.

I also watched one of the best orators of our time, President Bill Clinton speak at the Democratic Convention. He is masterful. I watched him on FoxNews, and was impressed by how differently they heard his speech vs. those at MSNBC. Their interpretations also differed during the Republican Convention, except the other way.

This is to be expected - elections are a zero-sum game, you either win or die. Fox advocates the right, and MSNBC the left. Their “journalists” interpret the candidates based on the outcome they seek vs. the true nature of the candidate, their platform, their patriotism, or even their record.

The Constitutional framers designed our government (division of power, House vs. Senate, debate procedures, etc.) to create a stilted enough process where as little as possible could get done, where megalomania was less likely, and where government has as little influence on citizens’ lives as possible. This is a good thing - we want government to do just enough so that our country is safe, our infrastructure is reliable, and we have a basic safety net to protect us in tough times.

Because of the complex and convoluted design, effective governing requires that the White House work with Congress; it requires that the House work with the Senate; and it requires that members of the House and Senate work with each other.

When this doesn’t happen, we are destined for dysfunction. Witness the last couple of years.

I have always thought that the Democratic Party is at best a random collection of special interests who hardly agree with each other much less anyone else. That they can never be organized or cohesive enough to stay in power on a sustained basis. The Republican Party on the other hand has always struck me as being both focused and unified - a powerful combination.

I didn’t realize until now that Democrat dysfunction embodies a fundamental principle of democracy - pluralism. Whereas Republican cohesion demands homogeneity. In the former, there are many roads to Rome; in the latter, it’s Caesar’s way or nothing.

When the Tea Party started to coalesce in 2007, they were idealistic about effective, constitutional governing - I liked them then. The 2008 elections were a landslide the other way, and they realized they needed to retool. Their new strategy: gain strength and inertia by co-opting the far right; focus the message (spend less, tax less, grow military, fear God); and, most critically, forget winning elections, just win primaries.

They realized that heartland Republicans vote against what they don’t like vs. for what they do like (witness how fervently they’ve now embrace Mitt Romney, a candidate they disliked intensely during the primary; but they hate Barak Obama more). They also realized their distributed, grassroots nature is ideally suited to placing their candidates in positions to win primaries. Once their person was the mainstream party candidate, all Republican voters would flock to him/her - they didn’t need to worry about the last mile.

This is how they took over the Republican Party in 2010. Ironically, the very adaptability and situational awareness that led them to this strategy has made them ABJECTLY INFLEXIBILE. They will now NOT compromise.

The result - Congressional dysfunction.

It took years of bad performance before the Dallas Cowboys made some tough changes, invested, and are now more balanced than they’ve been in a long while. This balance will hopefully lead to sustained success.

President Clinton’s speech yesterday extolled the Republicans of his time as much as it extolled President Obama. He harkened back to a day when governing took precedence over party, and when compromise took precedence over ego.

Governments are effective when politicians balance leading with winning.

The "new" Republican Party is incapable of this thinking; those that do believe that governing requires compromise know they will be replaced by “righteous” Tea Party candidates in the next Primary unless they toe the line. There is no balance, and there is no compromise.

This is the first national election in which I will be able to vote. As a Canadian, I was always a conservative voter - abortion, gay rights, national healthcare, role of religion in politics, and other social factors are broadly adopted and not up for debate. I care about these issues, but I care also that we have a government that will create a sustainable future for our children. I always believed that the Supreme Court would help protect the former, and a good Republican government the latter.

I must admit, I now have a hard time voting for a party that is so intractable, so absolute, and so opposed to balance and cooperation, that it would allow us to fall rather than compromise.

politics and not getting stoned

The Democratic Convention happens this week; they now get to respond (in kind) to what was thrown their way last week at the Republican Convention.

American politics is full of many things, most are far from honorable. But one thing which is more present than ever in both parties does give me hope. It is not supposed to have a place in government, the Constitution makes that explicit; and yet both parties honor and celebrate it with vigor.

I didn't watch much of the Republican Convention (I missed the genesis of Eastwooding :-(). All I did see was the last of Mitt Romney's speech, and of course the 100,000 balloons + 500 lbs of confetti. Did you see what happened next? The Romney/Ryan families left the stage amid raucous celebration, and suddenly the entire stadium - tens of thousands of celebrants, fell silent. Why? This man came to the podium to lead everyone in the closing ceremony - the shift from partying to praying was remarkable.

This same phenomenon will no-doubt occur at the close of the Democratic Convention - religion is a powerful, powerful force in American politics. But instead of an instrument of spirituality, community, and moral purpose; it is a bludgeon of orthodoxy, divisiveness, and ultimatums.

If I were President Obama, I would ask that the invocation to open the Democratic Convention speak of this passage from the Gospel of John, where the people brought a woman accused of adultery to Jesus, and asked if they should stone her as the Law of Moses commanded. He contemplated this, and then said: "He that is without sin among you, let him first cast a stone at her." The crowd then dispersed, and Jesus told the woman to "go, and sin no more."

If you have or know children, I'm sure that like me, you've counseled them with a variation of these words. We do this because we want them to turn the other cheek, and to do to others as you would have them do to you.

These simple yet powerful lessons which every politician has earnestly shared with his or her children, are fervently ignored when it comes to their own behavior.

Imagine how many undecided votes the candidate would attract if they began their convention with the promise that their party would henceforth (through to election day and beyond) act with respect and integrity? What if they would judge the other party only the way they wish to be judged, and seek to create bridges (even during the campaign) with all parties and candidates, for they know that once the votes are counted, all those elected are required to work together to serve the country.

They'd have my vote.

Divisiveness is difficult enough in good times, but in tough times it results in catastrophic dysfunction. We witnessed the invective in Congress and the White House over the last four years, and we have suffered because that made it impossible for them to accomplish anything.

Why can't we the electorate demand and expect civility? I have to believe the majority of American voters seek in their leaders a level of morality that at a minimum reflects what they were taught by their parents.

Religion is not supposed to influence politics but it does. There is no political risk greater than dismissing religious leaders or their opinions. Today, religion influences three issues - reproduction, homosexuality, and Israel.

Why such a narrow expression of religion??

Can we find a religious leader, a peer of Jerry Falwell, James Dobson, Pat Robertson and their brethren to advocate cooperation and respect? Can we help this voice become as powerful as those who care about abortion and gay marriage? Can we ensure that this voice is just as vigilant about holding government accountable?

It would be impossible for the Falwell/Dobson/Robertsons, the Democrats/Republicans, and even the left or right wing media to stand in opposition to a moral and effective government. Imagine if candidates had to condemn all forms of negative campaigning because they had to live up a moral standard?

America is a deeply religious state - over 80% of Americans are religiously affiliated, and every one of these religions espouses spirituality, community, and moral purpose. It took less than five years for the Tea Party to go from random disaffected pockets to a major political force. Why can't we create a pro-cooperation movement between now and the 2015 primaries?

Today religion in politics is an agent of divisiveness; whereas religion itself is a champion of community. It is up to us to transform the former into the latter.

social business

Facebook announced its first post-IPO earnings this week, heralding a critical step in the maturity of social networking - is this a new way to make money, or just the same-old?

The "same-old" is Google, whose innovation was to turn what was the customer (we who search) into the product, and selling us to their customer - the advertisers. It was brilliant, and transformed the very nature of internet monetization.

Social is a bit different - most who use it are less susceptible to, and rarely click on ads. After all, the idea is to connect with friends, share - not to click on random ads. With that, this aspect of Facebook's Q2 (second quarter) numbers should give pause:

• Earnings: $1.18 billion
• Earnings from advertising: $992 million (84%)
• Average monthly users: 937 million
• Total quarterly users: 2.865 billion
• Average revenue/user/quarter: $0.41 ($1.23/year)

Piling on, their most ad-lucrative market, and also the most stagnant in terms of user growth is America; the fastest growing is mobile (543 of 937 million users, or 58%), however converting mobile users into big time revenue remains undiscovered country.

At ~1 billion users, Facebook owns ~14% of the planet's population; but even the user base doubles this coming year (nigh impossible), the current revenue/user puts them at just $8.5 billion/year. Hardly "big-time," especially given their initial $100 billion valuation. (For context, Apple expects to earn $13 billion from iTunes alone in 2013.)

Key to social networking is the ability to publish what you're doing or thinking right now. This requires a mobile, connected device. The problem of course is that mobile, connected devices have to be small enough to go anywhere, and if the screen is cluttered with ads, there's no room to express yourself or see what your friends are up to, which defeats the purpose, and turns users off.

While Facebook started out on PCs, it's pretty clear that their future is mobile. But they've also admitted they don't know how to turn those users into $$.

The approach they're most bullish on is Sponsored Stories - where if a company buys the service, their ads show up in the right pane (on a PC), along with names of your friends who Liked it, and with that endorsement, the hope is that you'll Like it too. Facebook said they're now earning $1 million/day from these ads, with about half of that from mobile.

Even if this does create meaningful mobile revenue, it's not how Facebook becomes "big," or how social networking gets through puberty in a compelling way. Ads are just plain intrusive on a small screen; moreover, mobile click throughs need to go to mobile-enabled sites, which are more difficult to turn into actual sales for the advertisers.

Despite Google's brilliance, click through rates have declined from 5% initially to about 0.3% today. Google is still a success, but now with logarithmic (or less) vs. exponential growth.

If social media rely on ads as their primary revenue source, they will only make money by interrupting human interaction, not enabling it or enhancing it. It will however have the advantage of being not at all transformative, but at least it will be irritating.

I hope they are thinking bigger. I hope that Sponsored Stories sparks in the very smart minds at Facebook, Twitter, etc., ambition to innovate yet one more business model; one not based on the user's propensity to click random links, but instead attuned to the interaction between people, aware of what they care about, and savvy about how they will express it. Imagine how effective a company would be when armed with this kind of insight! Let's call this IP - Interaction Perception.

In fact, the smart approach would be to eliminate advertising altogether (reduce distraction and improve satisfaction) and focus instead on collecting data and creating algorithms that can (without infringing on privacy) assess and predict interaction, preference, and passion based on how we Facebook or tweet or tumblr.

Advertising is about creating urgent awareness (you learn something and are then compelled to act). The more savvy or sophisticated the consumer, the less effective ads become. Most ads suck at doing both - they at best accomplish awareness.

The type of contextual engagement that would be possible with interaction perception makes advertising obsolete. With IP, you could pinpoint exactly where your target audience tends to be when they're most likely to want your product, and literally place yourself at that location. You would know the 5 or 10 trend-creators for your product that you need to reach, and through whom you can create immediate and pervasive market penetration without ever "advertising."

foursquare for example creates incentives for people to announce their location, and then works with businesses to create special offers for frequent visitors. They can now identify "magnets" that bring people together, track traffic flow from place to place, determine brand preference, and much more. Today, foursquare is still using their knowledge to help merchants better target advertising/offers on their site, but this is just the beginning. While much of the insight today is location-centered, I'm sure this will not be the case tomorrow; they'll be able to get predictive enough to know when you need your next coffee, and potentially be able to vector a mobile coffee service to where you are. The possibilities are endless.

Unlike search, social networking is implicitly permissive. We never gave Google the right to track our behavior; we became angry when they started doing that and figured out how to disable their oversight. But we choose to publish what we're doing, with whom, and how we feel about it on Facebook/twitter/etc. Sure, some prefer to keep it private, but most don't - they want to share.

Social networking is about the only way to capture interaction perception - the problem is the "innovators" in social networking are too busy trying to sell ads, despite the inherent diminishing returns.

Rather than interrupt our experience with ads, why not infer and fulfill our needs with insight?

a reboot

Last week I suggested a Constitutional re-think was needed to help us put our government (and country) back on track. Here first is my reason why this approach is needed, and then a rationale for the Amendments I suggested. Thank you for your emails - it's been a great conversation!

If you run a business, you know that it is possible to take shortcuts and even break rules/laws to realize short-term gains; and you also know there ain’t no such thing as a free lunch.

Can you get back on the straight and narrow after an ill-gotten gain? Sure, but the longer you wait, the harder it gets. Cheating quickly becomes habit-forming; we get used to any (even bad) behavior, and soon it becomes the accepted norm.

Nowhere is this more true than politics. There was a time when running for office had a higher purpose; it was a calling to public service steeped in honor and integrity; one derived satisfaction from knowing that the greater good had been served.

As the business/economic value of having a politician in one’s pocket has grown, so has “investment” in elections and lobbying. Companies and individuals with vested interests spend absurd amounts of money financing candidates. For the upcoming election only (not all Senate seats are up for election), and as of June 30, the incumbents and their parties have raised $2.1billion (see below, source). They will of course raise much more in the weeks/months to come, bringing the total to well over $3 billion.

Even those that donate $1.00 expect something in return -- it could be supporting or opposing abortions, gay rights, gun control, raising taxes, a stronger military, public health care, or whatever. But there is an expectation of specific behavior in exchange for the $ (and the vote).

I wonder what these (see table, source) organizations expected (and received/will receive) for their contributions? Solyndra’s primary investor and executives donated $87,050 to Obama in 2008 - did this contribute to their $535 million federal loan guarantee?

Politicians seek and wish to remain in power above all else. It is in their interest to “cater” to their supporters. The ROI for these supporters has to be tangible enough to warrant the $ billions invested, so lawmakers add “helpful” riders/earmarks, or amend tax laws with credits/deductions; all to assure funding for the reelection, and maybe a nice post-politics job as a lobbyist or consultant.

What price do we the people pay for this pandering?

Over the last ~50 years, politicians have perverted the election finance, law-making, and taxation processes to the point where you can’t even excavate back to see what they looked like in the 1960s. The paybacks have resulted in layer upon layer of legislative morass, spending excess, political polarization, and voter disaffection.

What we now know to be “government as usual” is a horrible perversion to those who knew it in the 1950s and 60s.

It’s easy to overlook government excess as an acceptable “success tax” in good times; but in bad times the morass impedes action, the excess creates debt, the polarization becomes hate, and the disaffection turns into economic dysfunction.

Welcome to the America 2012.

So how do we fix this? With three Constitutional Amendments to overcome both the issue of financed politicians and the resulting morass. 

The premise: reduce (if not eliminate) the need for campaign financing, make it more difficult to “repay” prospective “investors” by creating greater transparency within the law-making and taxation process. This streamlining or legislation and taxation, might then spur business-led economic growth.

Below is a summary of the proposed amendments with commentary.

1. Election Reform:
   1. Term limits - President 1-6yr, Senator 2-4yr, Congress 3-2yr.
      • The White House should lead knowing they will never campaign again -- only then can they act in the best interests of the country. This is how we avoid the 2008 Republican #1 priority of preventing a second Obama term vs. governing.
      • Politicians must feel a sense of urgency to make a difference vs. making a career of winning elections.
   2. Election finance - Only public $ ($0.50/voter); no private or corporate $.
      • To win in the 2010 election, House members needed to raise $13,461/week to fund their reelection; Senators needed $27,243/week. This is why they got NOTHING done.
      • This is how we even the playing field and allow the President and Congress to govern, vs. becoming professional fund-raisers, and reduce the power of lobbyists.
   3. Congress & President/VP’s tax returns must be public until death.
      • Public service is not about lining your pockets, now or in the future.
2. Legislative Reform:
   1. Scope - laws/bills must be understood and explained by 5 random high school students in one week; they must only deal with ONE problem (no riders, addenda, etc.), and all sources and uses of funds must be enumerated.
      • The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act for example is 906 pages long - it is complex and can not be understood by a typical citizen. We must reduce legislative complexity and obfuscation, and clarify the funding of all expenditures.
      • If the Bill requires enforcement, that cost must be included and paid for.
      • Any citizen can challenge a bill with the 5-student-test.
      • It reduces (if not eliminates) the ability to “hide” payback to lobbyists, funders, etc.
      • A side benefit could be an incentive for Congress to improve education, thereby enabling them to create more complex legislation :-)!
   2. All laws (past, present, future) expire after 2 years; they can be renewed (provided they comply with #1); if not renewed on time, they expire by default.
      • This creates fewer, simpler, more enforceable, and more modern laws.
      • Congress is obligated to work vs. obsess with wreaking partisan havoc (or raise $$).
   3. Accountability - Congress must pass a budget on time every year, if they fail, all 535 members’ wages and benefits are garnished.
      • Nuff said :-).
3. III Tax Reform:
   1. Flat tax at source, zero deductions (includes tax, Social Security, Medicare, etc.).
      • Taxed at source, no deductions means employees with a single source of income  (majority) won’t need to file returns -- it’ll be automatic.
   2. Personal: 0% on 1st $50k, 15% on next $50k, 25% on next $100k, 40% on balance.
      • As government becomes more efficient and debt free, these rates should go down.
   3. Corporate: 3.5% of gross income - no exceptions or deductions.
      • Notwithstanding the arbitrariness, companies will prefer the clarity and predictability vs. today's complexity and randomness.

Our country is fast approaching the situation Argentina faced in the early 2000s, and the one Greece faces now -- a feckless government bent on petty self-serving agendas that in no way benefit the citizenry.

The status quo is untenable.

yahoo two

Yahoo just hired its fifth CEO in five years, this time it's Marissa Mayer of Google fame.

Context: Yahoo's home page reaches 700 million users/month; they earned $5 billion in 2011 (down from $6.3b in 2010); and have a market cap of $19 billion. That's something to work with, though the downward revenue trend, constant layoffs, and inability to hire talent (except for Mayer) are disquieting.

So... what will she do that the four+ before her didn't or couldn't?

I would suggest one of two approaches - both are dramatic, one is easy and the other is a gamble.

Option 1 - Easy: before the week is out, get a meeting with Steve Ballmer and offer him Yahoo + Marissa for a cool $25 billion (a mere 25% uplift on their current valuation). "The deal is good through the weekend Steve, you have my number."

Why would Microsoft be interested? The reasons for pursuing Yahoo in 2008 still exist -- it would give them a stronger base from which to compete with Google on search, and it would create a real Microsoft presence in the Valley -- something they've been craving for many a moon.

But there's one more reason -- Marissa herself -- she would be a huge feather in Steve's cap. With former Yahoo exec Qi Lu already running their Online Division, I'd look to place Meyer as either the leader or leader-in-waiting of the Server and Tool Division. This division has $17+ billion in revenues (3x Yahoo), and with a visionary leader, could do much better than their current 10% CAGR. It would IMO be better for her not to compete directly with Google, and instead forge a new and hopefully profitable path of her own.

The MSFT Board might also look at her as their 3rd CEO...

In essence, the Yahoo board would have hired Meyer as acquisition bait to create a graceful exit.

Option 2 - Risky: rethink Yahoo's business altogether. Look at the current search/email/ad business as Yahoo One, and put it in maintenance mode. Now use this cash flow to cover the startup costs for the next adventure, and to engage the next competitor -- Amazon.

With Meyer, Yahoo has three interesting assets -- their Developer Network and Tools, their small business clientele, and Meyer.

Yahoo still has a good technology reputation; they know how to run data centers, have partnerships around the world, and are proven in hosting and provisioning services globally. I would use these assets to establish a business akin to Amazon Web Services - AWS (whose recent service outages have given new entrants a window of opportunity) -- Yahoo Two.

The Yahoo Developer Network and their Tools give them a resource leg-up + a community of app developers to kick start things. But the difference maker is the connection to their existing small business customer base -- this could be a huge attractor for companies looking for app-hosting providers, and might even lead to a partnership/merger with someone like Salesforce or Quicken.

This gives Yahoo Two a slightly different positioning vs. AWS, and I think an advantage and differentiation in the long run. Their initial customers would lean more B2B, which would be easier, and give them a "known" base from which to pursue consumer-facing companies. They could even eventually integrate their email/web/ad services within Two for their app clients.

This is not an easy row to hoe, and it would require something that Yahoo does not have enough of today - a really talented computer science/engineering team. This is where Meyer comes in -- as a computer scientist, she would be able to woo talented graduates and professionals to Yahoo Two with her credibility + the lure of being part of something new and big with a proven winner.

Yahoo Two is a risky strategy, one that veers away from what made Yahoo Yahoo, but their current trajectory aims them squarely at AOL, whose market cap is $2.6 billion on revenues of $2 billion...

Not sure you want that on your resume Marissa.

a rethink

If I were writing the President's speech at the Democratic National Convention:

My fellow Americans good evening. It is with pride that I accept your nomination to be the next President of the United States. It is with humility that I speak about what must come next -- both in the weeks and months before election day, and in the four years that we hope will follow.

The last three and a half years as your President have been quite a lesson -- we live in a complex, nuanced, and opportunistic society. We each have great expectations for ourselves and our country, but we each see it differently. This is the magic of America, and the challenge of America.

It was easy in 2008 to be on the campaign trail, blithely criticizing everything President Bush had done, and telling you how I would make things better from day one. It is easy because until you sit behind that desk, there is no way to understand how powerful and powerless you are.

Each of us seeks the Oval Office with the best intentions; this time the campaign is between Mitt Romney and me. I will tell you now that I believe 100% that Governor Romney is a person of honor, integrity, and with a profound desire to serve his country. He intends to do his utmost to take our country to a better place. He has articulated a number of policies and strategies that he will enact to accomplish this, and if we took the partisanship out of it, I imagine I might agree with much of what he wants to do, just as I believe he would agree with much of what I want to do.

But in the scheme of things, today’s elections are won not by extolling that which unites us, but rather by objectifying those who divide us.

This colors our approach and vision of campaigning, and causes each of us to pander to fractional but wealthy or influential interests with polarizing rhetoric. The only victim of this behavior is the citizen.

Thankfully, strategies, policies, 9-point plans, and campaign promises don’t amount to much once you get behind that desk. On the day I was inaugurated, I was raring to go, but at every turn, I found myself facing three things - incumbency, partisanship, and complexity. The system didn’t like change at all, and was very effective at resisting it; each side was bent on making the other look bad at all times; and if you did manage to get past these two, you had to appease so many people, cater to so many interests, and account for so many legacy obligations that there was no way to actually get something meaningful done.

Here is what I want to accomplish in my second term, and if you do vote for me, you must do so knowing that this is exactly what your mandate demands of all those who are elected to office this November.

If I were a Republican, I might stand here and say I want a government that is as small as possible; that all elected officials must be completely accountable for their actions; that we must only enact laws that expand freedom; and finally that we must reign in excess taxation.

My friends, I, a passionate Democrat, stand before you to tell you that this is exactly where my campaign and upcoming term will focus. Specifically, I am going to campaign for three constitutional amendments, and ask the American people to only vote for me if they believe in all three.

Amendment A: Election Reform

Elected servants take on a greater obligation than any private citizen, and must operate under more exacting rules. There are three parts to this amendment.

First term limits - Presidents will serve one six-year term; Senators up to two four year terms, and Congresspeople up to three two-year terms. Second, election finance - no private or corporate money may be used by candidates - once a candidate wins their primary, they are allocated a budget of fifty cents per eligible voter in their district. No additional money may be spent. Moreover, third party expenditures will be illegal - we will not allow any candidate to be corrupted by special interests. Third, the accountability - to mitigate corruption, once elected to the Presidency or Congress, the winners are required to publish all future tax returns until they die.

Amendment B - Legislative Reform

Our laws are overly complex, filled with hidden benefits for special interests, take too long to enact, and live forever. We will change this. There are three parts to this amendment.

First, legislative scope - Laws and bills must be written so that five randomly selected high school students can read and explain them in one day; they must only deal with one thing (no riders, addenda, etc.), and identify all sources and uses of funding. Second, duration - ALL laws (past, present and future) will expire after two years; this means that any law passed two or more years ago, comes up for renewal in 2013; but they can only be renewed after being re-written per part 1 (scope); if a law is not renewed, it is eliminated -- this means a lot of Congress’ time will be spent on this! Third, accountability - Congress must pass a budget every year; continuances will not be allowed; failure to pass a budget will result in loss of all wages and benefits for EVERY member of Congress.

Amendment C - Tax Reform

Our tax code is absurdly complex, and too frequently used as a means of catering to special interests. We will simplify the tax code (following part 1 of Amendment B) and make it very difficult to change. This amendment has three parts.

First, scope - we will shift to a flat tax with no (zero) deductions; it will be progressive and deducted at source for individuals, and include all federal income (tax, entitlements, etc.) in that one percentage. Second, personal - the tax rates will be 0% for those earning below $50k/yr, 15% for those earning $50-100k/yr; 25% for $100-200k/yr; and 40% for the rest. Third, corporate - this will be a flat 3.5% on gross income.

These three amendments will assure elected officials intent on public service; clear and active legislation; and a simpler and less costly tax system. I will publish the analysis that shows that the amendments will put more money in Americans’ pockets, reduce our debt, and restore honesty and integrity to the government.

I have decided to suspend my “active” campaign in favor of first publishing the clear and simple amendments and our analysis; and then only doing live and televised town halls to answer questions about these three amendments. I will not spend one more dollar campaigning against Governor Romney.

Does the economy matter? Does the deficit matter? Of course!

Can we fix them? Yes, but not if the White House and Congress continue as we have for the last 10+ years. Our behavior and partisanship are reprehensible.

It must stop. It must stop so we can do the jobs we were elected to do. It must stop so that elections can once more be about public service. We must stop so that governing can once more be about doing good. We must stop or our economy will not improve, and our debt will become untenable.

My fellow Americans - I seek a national mandate to enact these constitutional amendments because without them, America gives in to persistent and reprehensible partisanship; it gives up on one nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

I will not accept that. As President and your nominee, I will do everything to win this mandate, and I ask you to walk beside me, to pledge your allegiance to the United States of America.

Thank you

divided

Something rather predictable happened in America yesterday. North Carolina became the 28^th State which overwhelmingly voted to amend their constitution to protect the "sanctity" of marriage as a union between one man and one woman.

As a recent citizen of this much-vaunted nation, this and related events make me question two things I was required to learn to gain citizenship:

(1) Did the Boston Tea Party really occur? Was this country really formed in response to "a long train of abuses and usurpations" against the ideal that "all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."? Or is that all a sham?

(2) Are the fifty (50) United States of America really so, or is this just a geographically convenient artifact?

Today, 56% of American States are anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion, and anti-any-other-religion-but-ours. They ironically campaign for this using the very Declaration quoted in #1 above. They are strong in their conviction, persuasive with their campaigning, and (very) successful in their actions.

If an alien were tapping into American news over the last months, they would be convinced that this continent is on the brink of civil war pitting the Middle/South (MS) against the North East/West (NEW). They would be further convinced that the passion, state of weaponization, and ferocity of MS would prevail against the tepid passion and insipid NEW.

I think they'd be mostly right. MS wins referenda because they stir passion in an organized way, they instill fear by correlating any issue to the personal insecurities of their constituents. NEW on the other hand appeals to people's sense of what's right; they may agree, but are not provoked enough to rock the vote. Once again proving that when it comes to politics, the threat (actual, perceived, or fabricated) of imminent, personal danger far outweighs any intellectual discourse.

Notwithstanding their brains, NEW's density and lack of savvy are impressive -- if I were running the NEW campaign advocating that any two consenting adults should be allowed to marry, I would also argue that any two consenting married adults should be allowed to divorce. I would be sure to give the latter as much "air" as the former, secure in the knowledge that that would cause/require MS to oppose it. While incredibly obvious, I'm certain NEW will never do it.

Gay rights is but one rift in metaphoric Grand Canyon that separates Americans; it began with the Civil Rights movement and the US military presence in Vietnam (or perhaps with the abolition of slavery?), and fed by vitriol, violence, and politics, blossomed into our current state of "irreconcilable differences." The pundits claim that the upcoming presidential election is about the economy/debt, jobs, national security (energy self-sufficiency), and health care. They're wrong. These are surface issues, filled with gray; and both sides (politicians and voters) are mostly in agreement. The real issues, the most evocative, are personal and decidedly black/white.

Democrats and Republicans alike claim "what unites us is far greater than what divides us" and in the next breath, go on to paint "them" as against the core, fundamental, and personal issues that "we" share.

You can't have it both ways. Aaron Sorkin said this best with President Andrew Shepherd's speech in The American President:

America isn't easy. America is advanced citizenship.You've gotta want it bad, 'cause it's gonna put up a fight. It's gonna say, "You want free speech? Let's see you acknowledge a man whose words make your blood boil, who's standing center stage and advocating at the top of his lungs that which you would spend a lifetime opposing at the top of yours." You want to claim this land as the land of the free? Then the symbol of your country cannot just be a flag. The symbol also has to be one of its citizens exercising his right to burn that flag in protest. Now show me that, defend that, celebrate that in your classrooms.

Then you can stand up and sing about the land of the free.

America (and democracy) can't exist when her citizenry is made to be personally severed from its neighbors. If we continue down this path of intolerance, metaphoric severance will become literal; either peacefully - "You (44%) go your way, and we (56%)'ll go ours.", or violently - "You're too evil to live, you need to be ended."

Maybe it's time to renew my Canadian passport...

spintegrity

As a kid, I routinely proclaimed my innocence when “stuff’ happened . It is possible that sometimes “I didn't do it” wasn’t exactly accurate; it's also possible that had I come clean right away (or even before the “stuff” was discovered), I would have spent much less time being well-grounded...

When I was in that “innocent” moment, I always felt it was possible that the broken fish tank (or whatever) might not actually be discovered, or that I could find a way to not make it my fault.

As in childhood, “stuff” also happens in business; but the consequences are worse than a wet carpet (the fish were saved, though I got zero credit for that). Sadly, the “adult” leaders are often as righteous as I was, and as convinced that they can somehow get away with it.

A teacher I admire recently posted a link on Facebook to a blog by Gary Rubinstein entitled: Why I did TFA, and why you shouldn’t. As a former TFAer, my friend was understandably upset about this. I too am an admirer of TFA (Teach for America), and this article was an eye-opener, it exposed perspectives I hadn’t considered.

Money quote: "Rather than be honest about both their successes and their failures, they deny any failures, and charge forward with an agenda that has not worked and will never work. Their ‘proof’ consists of a few high-performing charters. These charters are unwilling to release the data that proves that they succeed by booting the ‘worst’ kids — the ones that bring down their test scores."

A few months ago, the Susan G. Komen Foundation was accused of politicizing their grant-making (which they denied despite information to the contrary); they were further accused of singling out Planned Parenthood, which the head of Komen, Nancy Brinker also denied. When asked if their reputation was at stake, Brinker responded: “...all I can tell you is that the responses we’re getting are very, very favorable." They reversed their decision 24 hours later, apologized for causing any distress, while reiterating their righteousness.

Like TFA (23 years), Komen has been around a long time (30 years), both are very effective, and widely regarded as resounding successes. They had to overcome huge obstacles; persevere through difficult times; and finally gain traction and slowly win people over. Now, rather than begging to get an invite to the dance, they are the main attraction.

To get to success, it is often necessary to transcend negativity; it is always necessary to believe in yourself, your vision, and your strategy, even (or especially) when everyone else doubts you. This thick skin is critical to progress in the early days, and if you are fortunate enough to "win," it is sadly also very effective at helping you forget who and what you were when you started, and think only of how great you are now.

Humans are designed to forget, minimize, or even romanticize tough times -- I can't imagine a mother wishing to give birth to second child if this weren't true; it is certainly how adults forget the angst and difficulty and complexity of puberty and teenagehood, when they vowed never to be the jerks their parents were.

In life, as we learn and grow, we hopefully never lose sight of the principles and morals that we were taught as children -- these neural pathways were formed when young, and ideally persist and guide us throughout our lives. But in business (and politics), there is no such memory, especially when it comes to leadership. Principles or morals are routinely forsaken in the name of expediency. What's worse, it is the very leaders who were closest to those principles that are most likely to ignore them.

But how is the ideal that caused shivers down your spine, brought a tear to your eye, and drove you to do just one more thing before going to sleep so easily replaced??

I think it happens when you hire two- and three-lettered people - JDs, PRs, MBAs. The "2-3s" are designed to manage situations by respectively telling you scary stories about what will go wrong if you admit things; telling you lies about how great you are, and assuring you about how easy it is to fool the public; and by "helping" you measure success with generally-irrelevant metrics. The 2-3s also help you forget the big picture -- the very reasons your organization exists in the first place.

The result? You've been spun.

Spin is a powerful thing - it is intended to "shape" truth into convenience: "the fish needed a new home anyway, and let's face it the floor also needed a wash." The problem happens when you start believing your own spin. Back to TFA: Education is a difficult, difficult challenge -- we spend $100s of billions on it and are still failing. Rather than admit that some of their efforts have also failed, and help others learn from their mistakes, they're forsaking their original dream -- we can make education better -- for their new mandate -- TFA must succeed at all costs. This is true for Komen, for many large corporations, and certainly in politics.

As Gary put it, “TFA spawned leaders suffer a type of arrogance and overconfidence where they completely ignore any evidence that their beliefs are flawed.  The leaders TFA has spawned are, to say this in the kindest way possible, ‘lacking wisdom.’ ”

When you start believing that your 2-3s can help you hide or spin failures and acts of stupidity, you’re in trouble. When you start believing that these things didn’t really happen, you’re an idiot. And when you start thinking you can now do no wrong, you’re sunk, for you are now without integrity.

The standard to which we hold ourselves is our greatest asset. When we are honest about our successes and failures, we show our humanity. When we are open to external scrutiny, we are worthy of other people’s trust.

impossible??

You are what you measure. What gets measured gets done. These and other phrases are taught in most business schools around the world -- if you want someone to do something, pay them based on getting it done.

In sales, it's commissions -- if you don’t sell, you don’t eat; outside sales, many use MBOs (management by objectives). The process is slightly different, but the effect is roughly the same. The key is designing the measurement to ensure the desired outcome.

When students are measured based on test scores, the skill created is not understanding the curriculum, but rather knowing how to pass tests (an unhelpful skill in the working world). More insidiously, if schools are paid based on standardized test scores, an easy was to improve is to expel the poor performers. Sure the numbers look good, but is that really the right outcome? Are we measuring the right thing?

You need money to live, you work to earn money; like students who learn test-passing but not curriculum, adults learn how to game their system, how to interpret and translate their MBOs into the greatest income at the lowest effort.

Health care is rife with “gaming,” and like any other player in this game, (some) doctors are no exception. I was listening to Marketplace recently, and their fascinating show on billing codes -- every patient-related activity has a code assigned to it, and doctors must map their work to these codes to then bill the insurance companies and get paid.

To “clamp down” on rising costs, the insurance companies are reducing the $/code - so if lancing a boil used to pay $100, it now only pays $90. The result? Increased payouts, and more sophisticated gaming. Not exactly the desired outcome.

According to the show, 2.2 people are employed to do billing for each doctor in America. They even have their own conference -- CodingCon, where they “equip medical coders, billers and related healthcare professionals with best practices and tools needed in correcting codes from the start, avoiding claim denials, maximizing productivity and increasing practice’s bottom-line.”

Or, “learn how to not only overcome the $10 cut on boil lancing, but also add $100s more to your bottom line.”

The Marketplace doctor’s codistas have increased his revenue by 70% ("hundreds of thousands of dollars per year”). A codista at a hospital discovered that instead of claiming knee surgery and rehabilitation under one code, they could discharge the patient from surgery and then readmit them to the physiotherapy clinic downstairs, thus billing against two codes, and making much more.

How big is this? An additional $360B (yes, BILLION) per year is spent on the whole coding process - a concept that was introduced to standardize care and lower costs... We reap what we sow.

Net -- the best way for a doctor, clinic, or hospital to dramatically grow revenues is not by providing better care, adding more doctors, or serving more patients; it is by hiring more coders, and sending them to CodingCon.

We are what we measure, and what we measure gets done.

What if instead of student test scores and attendance, schools were paid according to how well their graduates did after they left that school? (Click for more info.) Now principals, teachers, staff, unions, etc. have a common purpose: the more prepared their students are for the future, the more money they earn. You’d better believe they will work together to ensure that their students are prepared for elementary (if a pre-school), middle, high school; or college/university, and the workplace. Attendance and tests are a piece of the picture, but the key measure is student preparedness.

The (state of federal) secretary of education’s only concern is tracking how students do after they graduate (something they, and the census system already does). By eliminating tons of redundancy and complexity, we should be able to educate all public school students at half the cost of today, saving $2-300B/year.

What if instead of procedures, doctors were paid based on how healthy their patients were? (Click for more info.) The job of health care is not to perform procedures, it is to assure a healthy community. This measurement would save $2-300B/year in coding procedures and such.

It is possible to create centralized (federal) funding with autonomy at the point of execution. The key is to ensure that the recipient of funds does NOT control how their performance is assessed or reported. Create the right measures...

For both education and health care, we can accomplish this with existing measurement systems and existing funding mechanisms. Not only would we achieve better graduates and a healthier population, we would do it for as much as half a $trillion less.

These are but two examples - consider the 39-year long war on drugs (metrics: arrests and interdictions). The result is $billions spent jailing street corner dealers (3 years in jail @$33k/yr for a $200 transaction) and intercepting tons of easily and inexpensively replaced drugs, with NO corresponding drop in consumption (constant for the last decade). If instead the last 39 years had been spent helping addicts, the war might already be over.

To quote a man of immense wisdom: “Impossible is just a big word thrown around by small men who find it easier to live in the world they've been given than to explore the power they have to change it. Impossible is not a fact. It's an opinion. Impossible is not a declaration. It's a dare. Impossible is potential. Impossible is temporary. Impossible is nothing."

prelude to discombobulation

I was reading a speech John F. Kennedy delivered in 1961 to the Canadian Parliament, and struck by this quote:

Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies. Those whom nature hath so joined together, let no man put asunder. What unites us is far greater than what divides us.

Over the last few months, I've been wondering whether the country President Kennedy represented still exists, whether his half of the "us" can in fact be represented as he did. Is there still a "we" in the "us" or is America no longer one country? Can the President legitimately "represent" US?

I thought the intra-American vitriol had peaked during the presidential election in 2008 - from calling candidates terrorists to questioning their birth and religious affiliation, because in the weeks that followed, it felt like we were moving back from the ridiculous to the sublime.

Wrong.

Today there is NOTHING the Republicans can do that will inspire Democrat support or approval, and vice versa. I bet if Speaker John Boehner(R) were to give money to a homeless person, Nancy (the idiot) Pelosi(D) would find a way to condemn it as a political act aimed at eliminating Federal social programs. Such is the lack of quality, maturity, and civility within the government.

The very concept of governing has lost meaning; American politicians' only goal is to win, and then raise enough money and create enough polarity to keep winning - there is no compulsion to actually do anything (serve) whilst in power, who cares about that!

Whatever "they" do, "we" have to hate and decry, even if we agree (or agreed) with it. If they do something that the electorate thinks is good, we have to spin it as misguided, anti-freedom, anti-common man, anti-jobs, or (last resort?) treasonous.

How did politics become so devoid of honor? I blame Karl Rove, who in crafting George W Bush's candidacy, saw that the only way to win was to target the religious right, prey on their fears, and make them hate, truly hate John Kerry. It was a brilliant strategy, and obviously successful. Now all politicians passionately embrace the low road.

Each side is so effective with their spin, they've erased the essential principle of democratic rule - that the wisdom of the broader electorate will attenuate the candidates' radicalism. When politics comes up at the coffee shop or at the dining table, it is easy to find "regular” people parroting either the MSNBC or Fox argument depending on their bias, and expressing the same vitriol against “them” that they hear on TV and from political talking heads.

The electorate has been manipulated, and can no longer do its job of keeping politicians honest and focused on governing.

The American government divides power among three branches so that no one agenda will or can dominate. But today the President (executive branch) largely controls his party in Congress (legislative), and with a majority in the House and Senate, is able to have his way on most things. The Supreme Court (judicial) is nine individuals with a lifetime tenure and the power to interpret laws as they choose. The current Court is comprised of five conservative and four liberal judges; many 5:4 rulings happen along "party" lines, and while the Court wishes to avoid this, it occurs more and more frequently, especially in cases where the Executives and Legislatives are also divided according to party propaganda.

If Mitt Romney wins his party's nomination (likely), and if he is able to activate the Tea Party with sufficient force to maintain the House majority and also win a Senate majority (possible), he will, with this "friendly" Supreme Court, essentially be a despot.

While he may have been (perhaps still is) more moderate than his rhetoric, he knows how to appease "them that brung him," in order to sustain majorities through the midterm elections, and then get reelected in 2016. Winning = radicalism + fear mongering.

Even within America, does the picture JFK painted still apply? Can Americans of both stripes be neighbors, friends, partners, and allies? Is there more that unites us than divides us? Or has Karl Rove put us asunder? It took a several years to foster the revulsion each feels for the other; I imagine it will take much longer to repair the rift and establish real trust. I do know that the longer we mistrust, the longer it will take to undo the damage.

Not ironically -- this rift was created by our leaders and blossomed with our assent. Not so long ago, a group of traitors wrote these words within a proclamation saying that enough is enough:

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

Here in the 21st century, the so-called Representatives inside the Beltway might well be worse than the despotic Brits of the 18th century.

So what will this primary and the upcoming election say about US?

Have we endured a long enough train of abuses and usurpations? Have they evinced a desire to once again establish new guards? Or will we just placidly whine about it and order another nonfat decaf half soy latte?

motility

Tyler Cowen co-authors Marginal Revolution with Alex Tabarrok - it is a fantastic blog; I read it every day. In a recent interview, Tyler said that one of America’s biggest problems is a lack of economic mobility. People are stuck in their economic stratum because they don’t have access to better schools, particularly in their K-12 (primary & secondary) years. Sure excellent people will succeed no matter their background or school, but the vast majority are immobile because the only education available to them is not good enough to help them rise.

They’ve also written that the US government’s approach to stimulating the economy (spend $trillions) is ineffective. I agree, and think it’s for the same reason - immobility.

Effectively executing the latter, might also give us the answer to the former:

When an economy falters, we must increase the flow of money -- get people and businesses to spend, this creates monetary mobility. That movement of money causes goods to flow, inventories to be replenished, and people to be hired. It’s not just about increasing the money supply, the added money must actually do work -- if it is put in the bank or invested, the effect is diluted or eliminated. So, who is most likely to very quickly spend every penny they get? What also is the most efficient approach - where there is little or NO leakage of funds to bureaucracy or other interests?

First who: In a shrinking economy, businesses will lower operating costs (layoffs, other efficiencies), grow profits through savings, and ONLY spend if they see sustained proof that customers are buying. They will not (and should not) create capacity when there is no demand. The result is profitability growing much faster than employment. Companies are NOT spending. They will only act when people buy. So not business.

People? If you already earn enough to meet your needs, any incremental income may not all get spent - you might save, pay down debt, or invest it instead. The richer you are, the less likely it is that a new dollar is spent. This money is least mobile. Poor people on the other hand, can’t afford to save money; they will spend whatever they have to subsist, if they get a bit more, it means they can afford to buy more necessities, not save more. There is also no overhead to their spending; they don't commission research, or conduct needs analyses, or consult McKinsey, they just buy food or clothing or whatever.

A thousand dollar bonus to someone earning $20K or less represents at least a 5% increase in income. If this person were the sole breadwinner of a family of four, they would still be $1,350 below the 2011 poverty line, and every cent would be spent. At that income, savings is not an option. There are 82.6 million people in the USA who earn $20K or less; giving each of them a $1K bonus would require a stimulus of $82.6 Billion.

When the lowest wage earners are spending money, their inertia creates a ripple effect that accelerates money flow, drives capacity creation and reinvestment, and thankfully (!) also enables the not-so-poor to buy new cars and drink mojitos in the Hamptons.

Then, how: Fighting the urge to form a task force, hold 735 meetings over three years, and create a 3,000-page manual, filled with absurd crap, let's just issue a $1,000 check to everyone who whose total W2 income (box #1) was less then or equal to $20,000.

In a commitment to failure, Presidents Bush and Obama chose and continue to choose a trickle-down approach with their stimuli, believing that giving $$$ to bigger companies will cause them to invest to create more infrastructure (manufacturing and service capacity), and in turn employ more of the middle/lower class.

Why? Perhaps because America doesn't like the idea of giving people a handout (though we have food stamps, welfare, jails, etc.). It is more palatable to give a business money because that feels less like charity.

But I don't think of this as charity as much as low-overhead-high-efficiency investment.This same view applies to education - the goal is simple, but instead of acting, we analyze; instead of inspiring students, we measure them; instead of empowering teachers, we oppress them.

This is not an argument against business, or the rich, or for charity; it is instead a plea for us to learn from nature, which teachers that the nimblest, most efficient, and most directly-aimed things prevail, ...and perpetuate.

bondage

I spent a few weeks during December/January visiting West Africa - it was a wonderful and enlightening experience. One day while driving on a beautiful road alongside the ocean approaching Luanda (in Angola), we noted how quickly the city is growing (we were stuck in traffic, looking at tons of cranes); how much opportunity there is; and how odd it is that one of the most expensive cities to live in in the world is actually in Africa. Who would’ve thunk it!

This led us to contrast the differences in how business is done in Luanda vs the West. I recall this same phenomenon across much of the rest of Africa, in the Middle East, and some parts of Asia as well. For someone from America, business takes soooo much longer to get going, it moves at a glacial pace, and we feel totally out of the loop. It’s just plain “wrong,” and uncomfortably difficult to “manage.”

We long for the bang-bang-bang cadence so familiar in America.

Hearkening to my days in Microsoft’s HQ, there was an “indicator” that was used to measure process and progress; it doesn’t exist so much outside the West, which seems to throw many “Westerners” for a loop when they are over “there.”

Meetings.

Here in America, if you walk past a person’s office a few times and note that they’re always there and alone, you conclude they’re disconnected, ineffective, and not a team player.

This perception and the corresponding meeting-primacy-sensibility is modeled by the entire executive leadership (GMs/VPs and above) who are ALWAYS in meetings. Scheduling just 30 minutes requires at least two months’ notice - they’re that “busy.” (Doing what, I wonder?)

How much real estate might Western companies save by eliminating all the offices, and “storing” everyone in meeting rooms?? ‘Cause let’s face it, if you’re any “good,” you’re never in your office anyway.

My first job in the Middle East was for an American company. Before leaving the US, I was told that it is different "over there"; things were going to take much longer, business wasn’t going to close anywhere near quickly, and I was not be fooled, because even if progress was made in the first meeting, it wasn’t going to stick.

My first couple of meetings in the Middle East reflected this - the customer didn’t ever want to “get to it” or talk business. I kept looking at my watch, worried that our time would run out. I declined his offer of tea (not wanting to impose), and he seemed upset. My much vaunted Effective Meeting Skills were for naught. Being a good Western worker, I had another meeting scheduled right after, and had to depart abruptly, leaving an important customer with zero progress.

I reflected on this afterwards, recalling that the two customers I had met were much happier when I arrived than when I left. I also noted that “local” executives were much more available than expats, and that the locals seemed to have much lower stress levels that “we” did. Those who’d been around (particularly the locals) were much more effective despite hardly being in meetings at all, and the meetings they did have seemed mostly social and not “business,” but despite all this, their “numbers” were really good.

I reconnected with that first customer, keeping the rest of the afternoon free. We talked not at all about business, instead we drank awesome Turkish coffee and shared school and travel stories - I never once looked at my watch, instead just focused on getting to know him, and helping him get to know me. We met again a few days later, this time over food and did more of the same; we also talked about our families, and about our hopes and dreams for them.

A few days later, he invited me to his home for dinner - I was honored. I met his family, we ate amazing food and just (!) enjoyed each others company. After dinner, when the two of us were alone drinking coffee, he said this:

“Shafeen, we have gotten to know each other, you have met my family, I have learned about yours [I had no family there], and we are now brothers. We have a bond of trust, and I seek success for you just as you seek success for me.

“I also know that you’ve spent time learning my business, know what we are doing, how we are doing it, and how your company can help us do better.

“So my brother, tell me how should we do business, and let us make it so.” 

That last sentence left this unsaid: “because I know you have my best interests at heart and will only do what helps me, for we are family, and I trust you.”

An agreement was struck, hands were shaken, a partnership was forged. When stuff hit the fan, I was on it, and make sure we did right by our partner. We hardly met to check progress, etc., trust replaced that.

More than 15 years have passed, much has changed, but when he calls, I do take that call, enjoy hearing news of his family, share the same of mine. If the conversation includes a request, it will be done. Ours is not (and never was) a business affiliation, it was and is a relationship, one I hope will endure for many moons to come.

Returning to America was weird - meetings were about doing work, and most rooms had more than one clock. Process people drove the agenda, and people left with action items. “Effectiveness” was key, and a “productive” meeting was marked with dense slides, many charts, tables, follow-up activities, and, yes, the promise of more meetings. People are actually measured on how well they “show up” at meetings (not whether the business or customers were benefited, but whether they do good meetings)!!

It is said that matrixed management (still the vogue in the West) is a more efficient [I wonder if we really understand the meaning of that word] way to run a large organization. But fragmentation and zero-sum employee compensation models that come with it perpetuate mistrust among leaders and workers and across organizations. Meetings are the way to ensure your interests are protected.

Accountability, responsibility, and relationships have become corporate collateral damage.

The measurement model for most large organizations intentionally flaunts team performance for comparative individual achievement. I gain strength only if my teammates are weaker; my success requires them to fail; there is no “us.”

Driving along that road as we approached Luanda, I saw once more that the non-Western approach, while seemingly frivolous and hopelessly inefficient, created relationships and trust and built bonds of accountability that resulted in success. It is unthinkable to betray the trust of a brother or sister.

Today I live in Seattle; my work requires me to inhabit a Western business fabric. I have more meetings than I’d like, and sometimes experience a sense of sadness as I realize how little this/our culture values us as people, and how much it values what others can do for us.

I think of my times in the "3^rd world," and wonder how long it will be before we 1^st worlders finally evolve...

quintessence

Steve Jobs resignation as CEO of Apple has provoked questions - will Apple maintain their trajectory of success? What is their unique advantage?

Check out these three articles:

1. Ultrabook: Intel's $300 million plan to beat Apple at its own game
2. The New Apple Advantage
3. 10 Reasons Why iPhone 5 Doesn't Stand a Chance Against Motorola Droid Bionic

The first is Peter Bright’s quest ‘to find a 13" MacBook Air that isn't made by Apple.’ Sobering insight into a normal person's experience of buying a laptop from Dell, HP, or Lenovo.

Next John Gruber thinks Steve Jobs and Tim Cook are responsible for Apple’s success: “We’ll give Jobs the credit for the adjectives beautiful, elegant, innovative, and fun. We’ll give Cook the credit for the adjectives affordable, reliable, available, and profitable. Jobs designs them, Cook makes them and sells them.” Gruber feels that it is possible for Dell, HP, etc. to copy Steve, but they’ll never match the economies of scale that Cook achieved.

Finally, Elias Samuel delivers a detailed and apparently thorough assessment of the shortcomings of a phone that no-one has seen vs. a phone that few will use. It includes the Korean version of their teaser ad, here’s the English version. If you want to nerd out some more - here’s a comparison of three random Android phones - does a typical consumer really think this way?

From these articles, I concluded that Apple made it easier for us to buy; consolidated their product line and parts requirements to lower operating costs; and conceded the phone-nerd audience vs. normal consumers.

But this isn't really Apple's magic...

Have you seen Jobs' 2005 Stanford Commencement speech? He said one of the best things that happened to him was getting fired from Apple in 1985. It gave him the freedom to create NeXT (which Apple eventually bought), and Pixar, the most successful and creative animated film studio ever.

Steve Jobs is brilliant and a visionary, but there are many of those; what makes Jobs unique is his time at Pixar.

Two “behind the camera” roles in film-making are Producer and Director. Simplistically, the producer’s job is money, logistics, and marketing; the director’s is the story, the artists, and the ultimate experience.

I think John Lasseter (director, Chief Creative Officer, Pixar) is/was a HUGE influence on Jobs’ thinking about the essence of product development.

Great directors must:

• Interpret an intricate, complex and wide-ranging story and turn it into something that can be conveyed in ~90 minutes;
• Marshal talented, creative, and ego-filled actors to work together for one cause;
• Create a complete sensory (emotional, visual, auditory) experience;
• Make all the difficult editing choices that turn hours and hours of footage into a tight story that will not only entertain at the theater, but also in DVD.

The story is preeminent. Difficult tradeoffs will be made, forsaking interesting story lines, scenes, and special effects. The audience will be treated to a unique and powerful and memorable experience because these tough choices and decisions were made. The audience's job is also made easier because *they* don't have to do this hard work - they just have to enjoy its fruits.

Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997 as CEO, but he was really the Director.

He took over a company that lacked focus and was bleeding money. Jobs eliminated most of the product portfolio (Newton, Cyberdog, OpenDoc, etc.), keeping only what he believed was part of the "story," and he aligned every employee to a singular vision.

He defined the experience customers would enjoy. I can imagine him saying, “Forget computing or productivity or any of that crap! Apple will entertain. We are not a company that builds multi-purpose devices that offer flexibility and choice at a low price. Apple's job, our job is to elevate spirits, to amaze, to create pleasure in use and pride in ownership."

This is Apple’s magic - this obsessive and uncompromising desire to create pride, to elevate.

Will it survive Steve Jobs’ departure as CEO? Is there another Director in the wings who will have as strong a spine and be as unwavering?

I hope so.

Stay hungry, stay foolish, Apple.

child abuse

Have you ever seen a therapist or a counselor? Does your employer have workplace policies that protect you from isms (ageism, sexism, racism, etc.) or undue physical hardship (excessive hours, moving heavy objects, etc.)? Are you able to take a day (or a few days) off if some thing personal comes up? Are there advocacy groups to support you if you feel in some way wronged by your employer, or if your life is in some kind of stress or distress?

Despite all this "help," many of us will come home after a tough day at the office and feel horrible, exhausted, drained, and just ...done. How often have you heard (or said) the words, “I need a drink”??

Adults have advantages: we are mature, we have freedoms, we can speak for ourselves, we have advocates and advocacy groups, there are laws that protect us, and perpetrators of “bad” behavior are prosecuted or sued everyday. Lawyers who specialize in these issues are prolific, and work on a pure contingency basis - caring for adults is a thriving business.

While it’s disappointing that all this is needed, at least we have access to support, friendly ears, and recourse.

What about our children?

They have access to a fraction of the resources or recourses that we do; they even have fewer legal rights! Worse, they’re going through one of the most difficult things in the world - transitioning from child to adult - puberty, growing pains, emotional transformation and upheaval, sexual awakening, first loves, responsibility...

Add to this, middle and high school are pivotal to their one (really only) ticket to happiness, good health, and independence in life. Without a great education, their destinies are ...uncertain at best.

Stress, complication, emotional overload, difficulty, rule changes, a persistent feeling of powerlessness. This is what confronts children in our society.

Talk about pressure.

Who is their advocate?

• Parents? Nope - most parents delegate their children's upbringing to school as soon as they're in full-time school. More often than not, they side with the “system,” telling the child it was much tougher when they were growing up.
• Teachers? Nope - they are similarly victimized by a system that mandates ridiculous measures of performance, absurd outcomes, embarrassing working conditions for relatively little pay, and lately, a ton of social vilification.
• Government? Nope - kids don’t vote.
• The legal system? Nope - it’s almost impossible to sue the government or a school. They are happy to sue teachers (who are the vogue target these days), but nothing else gets any traction, and teachers are broke anyway.
• The media? Nope - they love to hype stories of bullying, suicides, other abuse, but they don’t do anything about it or cause others to change.
• Who?

No one.

Humans are designed to forget the worst experiences we have - otherwise no woman would give birth to a second child. Teenagehood is not a happy time, but once past it, our memories become very selective. As proof, think of how many times you said, “I’ll NEVER be like them [parents/adults] when I grow up.” And then...

Adults (even parents) may not remember or even understand what it is like to be a teen/student; BUT they are CONVINCED they know what’s right for kids, what they need, and how best to help them become adults.

So here’s what we (adults) have decided is the optimal approach to “educating” children:

1. At the beginning of each year, they are notified of the school rules [you *must* click this link (note: this is for middle school)!], which presume every child is a cheating, lazy, misanthropic vandal. Animals are held in higher regard and given more love and understanding. [If you treat impressionable kids like criminals, how do you expect them to behave? Is it any wonder bullying, delinquency, etc. are on the rise?]
2. Each student in a grade is assumed to come in with same knowledge, context, motivation and home life, and expected to learn the same thing at the same time and in the same way. There is no room for individuality; there is no tolerance for “deviants.” [If they had their way, I think Education America would prefer every student to enter the factory as powdered potatoes and exit as identical, extruded McDonald’s fries/graduates.]
3. They must wake up at 6:30AM and be sitting in class by 7:30AM. Most walk through metal detectors, into buildings that more closely resemble factories or prisons; all are assessed for attendance and dress code. [Do you need a jolt of caffeine so you can face the morning? Do you feed your 6-year old a shot of Red Bull before school? "Of course not - that would be horrible and cruel! How dare you!" And yet you expect them to learn things at 7:30AM.]
4. Sit with 29 others in a room designed for fewer, where they are required to be attentive (silent), docile, take copious notes, and speak only when spoken to. [Schools, like prisons are designed to control and monitor the population, not to enable learning.]
5. Change rooms every 50 minutes, "enjoying" a steady stream of lectures covering new and altogether unrelated topics, and of course, be assigned copious quantities of homework. [Are you able to learn so many new and disconnected things everyday, with just a break for lunch (crappy food) and then pass the tests??]
6. “Learning” is measured by completion of homework assignments and of course lots and lots of tests. In all cases, students are judged individually - teachers are required to be vigilant in preventing plagiarism, cheating, and other bad acts. [When’s the last time you took a test that judged your whole year as a success or failure?]
7. The children are required to carry 15-20lb packs containing expensive and outdated textbooks to and from school. [Workforce rules protect most adults from carrying this much weight every day. But not so for our children and their growing bodies.]
8. Adults in "higher" institutions have deemed that grades alone wont get a student into their university - they need a gazillion extra curricular activities, to be a volunteer, have interned somewhere, and written an essay begging to be considered for admission. And if the gods smile and they are accepted, they have the privilege of graduating just slightly more educated, saddled with at least $75k in debt because of the exorbitant tuition.

So this is the best way to prepare our children for adulthood during their already difficult growing years. Who knew?

But wait, there’s more! Shrinking federal, state, and local budgets have resulted in teacher layoffs, equipment reductions (no more labs), increased class sizes, school closures, elimination of most “non-core” classes (arts, phys-ed, clubs, etc.), the killing of recess (yes, recess!), and even guidance counselor layoffs in middle schools.

Rest assured though, our Defense budget remains largely untouched. Whew!

Adult feelings, wants, needs, and satisfaction are routinely surveyed by our bosses, who at least try to be responsive. When is the last time a school district asked its students how they like to learn, or what environment is most conducive to learning? And if they did deign to ask, did they actually listen, much less change??

Abuse is defined as "any action that intentionally harms or injures another person."

It is time that America admitted that her 50 million public school students are victims of wide-spread, systemic child abuse.

Do you recognize these words?

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.

I bet the younger amongst us will. When, I wonder will they heed them and declare their independence from us despots??

As for me, all this typing has really stressed me out, and I’m feeling a tad overwhelmed. I'm going to visit my therapist, get a massage, have a martini or three, and then take a few days off...

social reality

I’ve received a lot of email over my last post :) - my thanks to all of you! Most questioned the alignment between advocating killing Social Security and community-related posts like this or this.

So...

I believe that the role of society is to care for those that can’t. When pre-humans began to coalesce into communities, they discovered that it was possible to specialize - hunters, child raisers, security-providers, shelter creators, etc. As these specialists became more efficient, wealth was created; in this case, it was the wealth of time and reflection and communication and innovation.

Over time, they used fire for cooking and protection, they used farming to grow and improve their diets; they used knowledge of the human body and medicine to reduce infant mortality and increase life spans; and the community was able to “support” caring for the ill and aged, learning, art, and other “civilized” pursuits.

This is the essence and power of society and community, ...and civilization.

Then why nuke Social Security?

Western society has “evolved” to the point where necessities (healthcare, education, infrastructure, security, etc.) cost too much, and our organizations (governments, corporations, etc.) are so big, inefficient, and pendulous that real change/improvement is impossible.

For more than a generation, Western nations have had to borrow massive amounts of money just to maintain status quo. Despite deep programmatic cuts, operating costs today are still much higher than revenues. Bureaucratic inertia + embarrassingly juvenile (apologies to the world’s youth) and avaricious elected officials have prompted credit agencies to put most governments on “watch,” and recently, downgrade America and Italy, among others. This plus the prospect even bigger dufuses being elected in 2012 assures a future of worse government, greater ineptitude, and growing (more expensive) debt.

What to do? Short of a total national reboot, we must prioritize at the program level, and make some tough calls.

What programs must remain, and which can be eliminated? I say education and healthcare for all are more important than Social Security. With an effective education (early childhood through post secondary), and the comfort of basic healthcare, we give people the building blocks to not just survive, but thrive. Eliminating a safety net like Social Security creates an impetus for people to care for themselves and their families, or else.

Unfortunately, the Republicans/Democrats/Tea Partiers are proposing small, inconsequential but politically palatable cuts to everything; if they do recommend the elimination of programs, they are small and budgetarily inconsequential. Our situation is far too serious and dire to tolerate this kind of futzing around.

To protect the essence of our society and the viability of our community, we need someone with serious cojones to step up, take the bold step of throwing partisanship, politics, and silly amendments aside, and lead.

flaunting the third rail

The third rail in many railway systems (tubes, subways, metros, etc.) is electrically charged, and fatal if touched; unless you’re contemplating suicide, stay away from it.

In American politics the third rail is Social Security (SS). The people most affected are the fastest growing segment of the population (older people); they have very strong lobbies (AARP); a lot of sympathy (we’re all planning to get old + Congress’ average age is 57); and they turn out in droves and vote in both primaries and general elections.

After reading Monique Morrissey’s testimony before Congress and talking to a few people I thought SS was a sustainable program, needing only minor rate increases, and that Governor Rick Perry’s Ponzi claim was specious. But...

SS beneficiaries receive significantly more than they + their matching employers invest; to make this sustainable, the system counts on a reasonable return on invested capital, a certain mortality rate, and more people contributing than consuming (i.e. disproportionately younger, income-earning population).

This is similar in design to a Ponzi Scheme, so it is reasonable for Gov. Perry to make his claim. Plus here’s Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution quoting three Noble Laureates who agree with Perry, and argue that people are having fewer babies and living longer (= more older people, fewer SS contributors), and economic growth has slowed (a lot); all of which affirms that Social Security as-is is no longer sustainable and in a literal sense, fraudulent, especially to younger contributors.

The "fix" strategy is to pare things back a little - increase the contribution percentage, implement a means test, delay eligibility, and significantly reduce the amount of benefit paid. Does this make the return worth it for seniors? Can they live on this reduced benefit? Are Republicans right that it should be self-managed? Can the public do better on its own? I say, "Yes."

The President is fumbling the ball all over the place, has a largely vision-free and uninspired record thus far, and could very well lose the 2012 election. This is no time to be timid or take half measures. He could overcome his legislative impotence and take a bold step to redefine entitlement - he could propose that we face reality and sunset Social Security.

The first question in all of our minds - how will this affect me? Well, if you're:

1. Over 50: Three changes - increase in contribution percentage (+2%), a means test for recipients, and an increase in the retirement age (+1 year). You keep paying in, and you will receive what was promised until you die.
2. Over 35: You stop paying into the plan, and you get the current value of your historical contributions back in a locked, tax-deferred US Treasury Bond that you can access upon retirement. All your very important future contributions into this nest egg are tax deferred.
3. Under 35: Sorry, and thank you - your contributions will go towards your parents’ and grandparents’ retirements. You are encouraged to contribute towards your own retirement with tax-deferred deductions of up to 15% of your annual salary. You have the option of buying the same US T-Bonds, or a number of other tax-deferred instruments.
   
4. Federal employee: The same (#1-3) formula will apply to federal employees for their pensions - we will increase salaries slightly to compensate for this, but per the scheme above, times are tough, and we can't afford this benefit anymore.
5. Elected official: Historically, the President, Vice President, Congress, etc. received pensions to discourage, well... bribery. We will continue to offer this pension to elected officials as long as it is their ONLY source of income.
   

This is a long sunset - it will take about 40 years for those who are now 50 to die, at which point Social Security dies with them.

Advantages:

1. Take the government out of the pension business.
2. Screw everyone a little bit - spread the pain.
3. Create a palatable, self-managed savings scheme for American workers.
4. Offer tax-deferred T-bonds as a secure retirement investment, that are also a way for the Feds to raise money, put more of America’s debt in the hands of Americans, who have the greatest vested interest in ensuring its repayment.

This is a dramatic step to be sure, but real leaders face issues head on; they don’t patch things up and leave them for future generations to deal with. Will this be the only step in the “face and deal” process? Nope - MMO (Medicare/Medicaid/Obamacare) also needs to be rationalized, consolidated, and made available as a basic service to all Americans in a way that encourages well-being and good health vs. the current system which funds visits and procedures and tests, but that’s for another post :).

If President Obama has a hope of not just winning, but winning a decisive mandate, he must LEAD. He should not marry this to taxes for jet plane owners or any other silly ploy. He should set the precedent for proposing simple, clean legislation that deals with our most important problems one at a time.

Start with entitlements, show that you're bold enough to go where others have feared to tread, and that you have our nation's best interests at heart, with no fear of the political consequences.

feckless

Tony Karon argued yesterday that Israel's 'Diplomatic Tsunami' has arrived, I think he’s right, and it got me thinking about America’s foreign policy.

From Wikipedia, “a country's foreign policy... consists of self-interest strategies chosen by the state to safeguard its national interests and to achieve its goals within international relations milieu.”

For almost a century, America has been the world’s cop, the world’s strongest economy, and even the world’s authority on morality. From protecting Korea and Taiwan in Asia, to helping Japan and Germany with their post-war economic recoveries, to leading the world in communications and high tech and entertainment, to being Israel’s doting uncle, America has been a (really “the”) dominant force in shaping the world’s behavior.

America, the President of the United States, and the American Congress were regarded, respected, and feared as the pinnacle of freedom, integrity, power, and achievement.

When “powerful” is your norm, you assume infallibility and righteousness are forever yours. The most brazen example of this is the Bush Doctrine (aka National Security Strategy of the United States) wherein the American government empowered itself to preemptively strike any entity or sovereign state that it deemed threatening.

American foreign policy is/was not so much a diplomatic process as thuggery; using either the threat of, or the actual act of military or economic retribution to impose its wishes.

Wielding brute force will go to your head; when you have this kind of power, why bother with subtlety? Why waste time on nuance and wit when you own the most powerful one-two punch (US Military, US Dollar) in history? Sure it's dominant now, but time isn’t kind to those that drink too much of their own Kool-Aid; Davids are able to find slingshots, Goliaths are vanquished.

Ten years ago today, America was the victim of a horrible and criminal act, and it reacted with force and anger, some of which was directed against its own citizens, making us a lot less free than we’ve ever been. America is a more intrusive place to live today than it was on September 10, 2001.

That same act also robbed America of its integrity, as evidenced by three words - Guantanamo, Rendition, and Torture.

The American military is without equal in “traditional” warfare; the last time they were asked to fight one of those was 21 years and 40 days ago, and they were victorious. Since then, the “enemy” has been replaced with individuals and small groups of criminals who are inhuman, without honor, and lack any national affiliation. This is a law enforcement problem, not a military one.

Using the military to counter terrorism is like using a gun to kill a mosquito. You make a fool of the weapon, create a ton of random damage, and help the foe look agile and effective. Case in point - Afghanistan, ironically the same place where Americans helped the “locals” defeat the Soviet Union. American power does exist in reality, but in the eyes of the rest of the world, it is no longer mighty, nor is it feared. The thug mind assumed that every problem could be solved with the same weapon, and that delusion made a mockery of both the thug and the weapon.

Can we at least rest on achievement?

Going back to Karon’s article, taking its cue from Uncle Sam, Israel assumed that a powerful military and self-righteousness are all that’s required to maintain the status quo; but they didn’t count on the agility and effectiveness of the mosquito, which took the form of individuals and their desire for personal freedom and justice.

They did count on Uncle S to stand with them and “prevail” on the Turks, Egyptians, and even the Palestinians to respect and honor the integrity of Israel; and of course America did stand with its favorite nephew, but regrettably, with little effect. Nations (and worse, individuals) that once cowered are no longer bowed. They listened politely, but then followed their own beliefs rather than US "advice."

Why? Because today even America’s ability to get it done is suspect - the military will leave its last two theaters of operation without victory; the economy is weak and depleted; the government prefers ideology over strategy.

What was once a majestic and imposing and relentless is tired and fading. The “assets” that America has held dear for so long, it’s military and the all-mighty dollar remain, and remain strong, but only according to the definitions of the last millennium.

While the world moved on, America chose laurels and rest.

The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is rapidly fadin’
And the first one now will later be last
For the times they are a-changin’
Bob Dylan - The Times They Are A-Changin’

These are harsh words on this sad day; but this is also a day of reflection, when we contemplate not just what was lost, but how we've changed, and what we've become. Reflection must encompass the whole image in the mirror, not just the convenient illusion. Humility always prevails over hubris.

mastering apprenticeship

I did my undergraduate degree at the University of Waterloo in Canada. It is a fantastic school (I might be biased), and it contributed greatly to preparing me for what awaited me in the years that followed.

In addition to the academics and the social, thanks to their Co-op Program, I graduated with excellent work experience, zero debt, and a firm job offer. Combining the practical with the learning is a critical success factor for any educational system.

I can’t count the number of candidates I’ve interviewed over the years with a solid academic pedigree, but no sense of the working world, how to navigate it, get things done, add value in a team setting, and even to be self-motivated and driven. We’d take a chance on some, but there’s no substitute for someone who can hit the ground running with both school and street smarts.

Many colleges and universities are embracing co-op or similar approaches to better prepare their graduates for employment (I’d like to think Waterloo is a pioneer!), as now are some forward-thinking high schools.

I was invited to speak to the faculty of such a high school a couple of weeks ago - Saint Martin de Porres in Cleveland. It was an eye-opening experience.

Saint Martin teaches low-income students and is noteworthy for many reasons, the greatest of which is that EVERY student graduates (vs. ~50% for the rest of Cleveland); and every graduate in the school’s history has been accepted to at least one college or university, all with a >30% higher college persistence rate than the national average. ...Wow!

From the founder to the school head to the faculty, everyone is committed to (in my words) the ideal that every child matters; that they must embrace and nurture each student; imbue drive, resourcefulness and perseverance; and teach them to embody integrity, respect, and grace.

Powerful stuff.

But there’s more - every student is required to work for a local company in a four-student job-sharing team, where together they cover a full work-week throughout the school year (1.25 days/week/student).

Over 100 companies in the Cleveland area are Corporate Work-Study Program partners, and this year alone, will invest more than $2.5 million towards funding the school! ...Wow!

Saint Martin takes this program very seriously - in fact, a teacher told me that they have a (very real world) zero-tolerance policy if students fail to take their job seriously; they are a bit more tolerant of in-school lapses, but work is work.

So... not only does every student receive an excellent education, they also graduate with work experience; are savvy about the workplace and how to thrive there; and they benefit from their very generous employers who provide mentorship and career guidance.

Blending theory and practice (master/apprentice) is at the heart of true learning and life-preparation, and has never been more critical than in this day and time, when students (and especially minorities) are disproportionately unemployed.

This alone is noteworthy, but there's also this:

The students’ academic proficiency is undisputed (100% acceptance of graduates to college/university), but they accomplish that with 25% less class time than other schools! Recall that each student spends five (5) school days every four weeks (ave 1.25 days/week) at work.

That’s “lost” teaching time -- or is it?? When you personally experience the application of learning outside school, your desire and capacity to learn in school grows, as does your engagement in class. In other words, they have improved the efficiency of teaching and learning by removing the kids from the classroom and putting them to work! How cool is that!

While almost every teacher I’ve ever met is worried about the volume of content that must be taught in a very limited time window, the faculty at Saint Martin has been able to literally teach more in less time ‘cause their students are steeped in context.

An important lesson for all school leaders and teachers.

Inner city students are the most disadvantaged among us, and it is important to learn from schools like Saint Martin de Porres, who are changing this by caring for their students, being innovative and creative in how they prepare their students to be kick-butt graduates, and by ensuring the sustainability of the school.

Bravo

the hole in the middle

The professional baseball season is 162 games long, and the players have a saying: "Every team's going to win 54 games, every team's going to lose 54, it's what you do with the other 54 games that counts."

This is also true in politics. The fervent Right (1/3 of voters) will always vote Republican, and are lost to Democrats, who have the Lefty third in their camp. The theoretically “balanced” media is just as polarized, and only attracts audiences who are in violent agreement with them; few if any “minds” are changed.

Both sides realize they need the Center to win the Presidency, and despite redistricting efforts, many Congressional districts and states are also decided by Centrists.

Normally, politicians lean toward the Center once elected, but the 2010 elections have resulted in a level of dogmatic obstinacy that has rendered the White House impotent, Congress a disgrace, and America a laughingstock.

Was this a one-time occurrence? Will the political landscape come back to its senses with a natural regression to the mean? Or has the American voter become so polarized that the middle 1/3 is no longer meaningful?

As a Centrist, I hope not - I don’t want to see a cluster f&*k like the one that we’ve experienced so far in 2010/11.

I don’t speak fo all Centrists, but I believe most would agree that ensuring the sustained wellbeing of every citizen is the #1 priority of Government.

Today is Labor Day, but more than 25 million Americans are un- or underemployed (i.e. not earning enough to survive); the two greatest sources (public sector and small business) of jobs are retrenching; and larger corporations are doing pretty well.

The White House and Congress are oblivious; they think making government smaller, eliminating jobs, and pandering to the Tea Party (lower taxes, less debt) are the path to prosperity.

This at a time when more families are unable to feed themselves every day, individual debt is untenable (student loans are at an all time high), and those who might have a dollar or two of disposable income are saving it, preventing the very commerce needed to put people back to work.

To earn my vote, I’d like to see candidates focused on:

1. Investing to create jobs.Individuals and small businesses need improved access to debt, and assurance that their jobs are not about to go away. People create the demand that will drive the need for supply, production, and jobs. The obsession with shrinking government (the country’s largest employer), reducing debt, and cutting and cutting, has created a ripple effect in the commercial sector (shrinkage), and with individuals who are increasingly scared to spend.
   
   Government prioritized supporting corporations over the last couple of decades and it worked. Large businesses are more profitable than ever, and they are more cash-rich than ever. But they are not investing because they see no need to. There is no pressure on corporations to expand capacity because consumer demand is weak.
   
   Government must now prioritize the individual, to help them become consumers once again, and give corporations a reason to invest their savings back into the economy.
   
   Lowering individual taxes are not the answer - this has never worked. We must improve cash flow by refinancing existing consumer debt, changing the way student loans are awarded and priced (if we can deduct mortgage interest, why not student debt?), and providing individuals with some assurance that at least their children’s education and health will be taken care of (see below).
   
   These acts will immediately put money in consumers’ hands, and give them the motivation to buy stuff.
    
2. Creating a safety net that includes universal education and healthcare. Public education was a response to the demand for Industrial Revolution workers, and to protect young children from slave-like labor. It was decried at the time as a socialist act, but justified because an educated and employed workforce would accelerate Capitalistic economic growth, and prevent child abuse, which was thankfully agreed to be a good thing. Today we accept public education.
   
   Universal healthcare is no different. The ONLY constituent that suffers is the health insurer (and the politicians funded by them). By ensuring that everyone is covered, we grow the healthcare industry even more rapidly (it is one of the few that even today is adding jobs), and we recognize (as we did with child labor) that this is part of society’s obligation to help ensure the sustained well-being of every citizen.
   
   But we accomplish one more thing - we enable the bold, daring, capitalistic mindset of the “exceptional American” (sorry) by freeing them to invest and spend and grow the economy, safe from the worry that their families won’t be able to go to the doctor when needed.
   
   The value of this peace of mind can not be underestimated when it comes to a national, positive, growth-oriented outlook.
   
   
3. Banning government intervention in individuals’ lives (provided they aren’t harming others).
   
   I want my government to stop wasting time worrying about abortion (it is the law of the land), gay marriage, teaching creationism, and the myriad other “social” issues that are important to individuals, but which as a Centrist, I don’t want to make political.
   
   It is bizarre to me that Congress (a bastion of piety, morality and right-mindedness) should even be allowed to opine on these issues, must less legislate them. They simply have no standing.
   
   I think we can trust the American people to live within their moral fabric and rely on domestic law enforcement to protect them from those who would do them harm.

Once the economy stabilizes, we must absolutely focus on cleaning up Government - this will require a clarity of vision and cojones. Attributes both President Obama and the Republican candidates are sorely lacking.

It is ironic that the non-extremist nature of Centrism precludes the impetus to advocate for rational government.

essence

I’ve been pondering the role of technology in teaching, and what surveys say is the teacher's biggest challenge - student engagement.

Unpacking it:

What is engagement? Starting with an easy one :). It is when students crave learning, when they run to school, and dread leaving.

What is teaching? I see it as an unwrapping and a wrapping. The unwrapping is the job of the teacher, enabled by the student, and the wrapping is the job of the student, enabled by the teacher.

Unwrapping, according to sculptor Fredrik K.B.: “There is life inside the stone. Just as with people, you have to lure it out with love. To force upon it a form you self [sic] have made up is to me the worst form of violence.”

Except for some indigenous societies, this concept is anathema to most Western parents and school systems. Our “evolved” goal: “an effective education leads to gainful employment and economic independence.”

To create employees, education identified common denominator skills across “all” jobs and requires all students to learn them in the same way. To be common, these skills (fractions, algebra, grammar, essay-writing, etc.) are abstracted, and thus difficult to connect to any “real” job, and for most students, impossible to visualize as something fun or interesting or even employment-like.

Skipping the unwrapping process altogether, our system aims to shellack every child with a veneer of “common” skills so that they are generically palatable to the greatest number of employers. In doing this, we admit that education’s “customer” is the employer, not the child; and that success is not fulfilling the child’s destiny, but rather creating faceless drones.

...Truly honorable work.

Ironically, employers are not looking for automatons, they are looking for inquisitive, motivated, creative, team-oriented, and energetic people who are compelled to achieve greatness.

Maybe a bit of a disconnect here...

What is technology? In this context, technology is any “tool” that comes into the classroom and disrupts the status quo. Much of the education community perceives it as a threat because it disrupts “control and order.”

I wrote about the 21st century imperative in 2008, talking about how technology has enhanced communication, and bypassed the teacher as a bottleneck to information; you will also see some awesome quotes on how the establishment decries these intruders in their midst.

But I missed something in my post - technology can be more than this. It, with the help of a teacher, can be the path to engagement, and through that, the unwrapping and wrapping of a student.

“Why?” is probably the most frequently-spoken word by young people everywhere. Instead of dismissing this “insolence,” why(!) not have the child figure out the answer themselves? Most children in the West already have the second most powerful research tool ever (the first being the brain) in their smartphone, let them use it!

Teachers will tell you that a smartphone is a distraction, with Facebook and YouTube and games, they need to ban it so that kids can focus on “learning.”

I don’t agree. If you are given a thing and not shown how “best” to use it, you will use it “randomly.” To compel a student, you must take what interests them already (be it baking or playing music or humor or how-things-work or fashion), and help them “get good at it.” Teachers can help them use the tools at hand to observe, reflect, document, and exhibit what compels them. This is learning!

Michelangelo said, “If people knew how hard I worked to get my mastery, it wouldn't seem so wonderful at all.” This is true of cooking, DJing, being funny, building a car, or creating amazing clothes. In fact, there is hard work and mathematics, grammar, communications, science, and much more in every one of these endeavors.

Education is not wrong to define subjects like mathematics, language arts, and science as “core” to almost everything that follows. Its failure is in being “well-intentioned, wise, experienced, and successful” adults who have forgotten the moments in their lives oh so long ago when they swore they’d never be the unfeeling jerks their parents were.

Education has the opportunity to help students use the tools they have and like in ways that lead to learning. It can help them unwrap the perfect statue(s) that exists within every child, and through that, make each one a unique and valued and shape changing contributor to our ever-stodgy adult world.

It just has to want to.

demoPrats

Nope - it’s not a typo - a prat is an incompetent fool; and looking at the Party of Donkeys, I see a whole lot of those in their midst.

The DemoPrats have accomplished little to nothing since 2006, during which they’ve had control of the House (‘06-10), Senate (‘08-) and White House (‘08-); their leadership is inept and toothless, and they lack the ability to lead.

The Republicans are dogmatic bullies under the dual (and bizarre) thumbs of the Tea Party and Grover Norquist. But they are masterful at focusing their message in a way that is instantly resonant. Their platform in my words:

1. Taxes are evil - We must curb government excess and put Americans to work.
2. Life is sacrosanct - We must protect innocent unborn children from those who would kill them.
3. Peace through might - We must ensure America’s freedom and safety with a powerful military and border security that deters all our enemies.

To any Democrats that might read this post - can you in as succinct a way articulate your Party’s position?

...

Yeah - it’s a problem isn’t it? In the absence of a compelling message, you allow the Rs to define you as Anti-Jobs, Anti-Life, and Anti-Freedom.

...DemoPrats

From the President down to the petulant Reid/Pelosi dullards, no-one has been able to effectively challenge the Republicans. This is after all the party favored by most of the media, almost all of Hollywood, and some of the brightest minds in the country, and yet, they are bumfuzzled.

1. Taxes create jobs. Capitalism is greed - if your net revenue/employee is positive, you will hire more people because you will make more money. If your taxes go up, you’re still greedy and you’ll hire even more people to make back the tax money - remember employees are a tax deduction. There’s a ton of data to back this up.
2. Life doesn’t end at birth. Every life must be protected; a healthy birth is the beginning - we must ensure a healthy life for every child - that includes an excellent education and guaranteed healthcare. Healthy, well-educated children are net contributors to our economy - they do honest work, and pay their taxes. In fact, they give back more than we spend on them. The Bible says we must protect life, and we couldn’t agree more - the healthier our nation, the wealthier we are, the more jobs we create, and the less debt we incur.
3. America first. We have a lot of problems to fix here at home, and a lot of enemies wishing to attack us in our own backyard. Let us bring our troops back from abroad, and defend our own cities and towns. We don't need to be the world's cop anymore.

This is just an off-the-cuff (one hour of thinking) response written by an immigrant marketing guy.

The Dems could easily de-Prat themselves if they were to utilize the full capacity of the talent on their side; they just need to focus on connecting to their audience, and not on trying to be smart, something in which all DemoPrats revel.

Effective communication is not when the speaker does a good job, but when the audience hears what they need, in the way they need it.

To be clear, this is only a way to engage the voters politically, and win an election. It does not change the DemoPrats' ineptitude in government.

I think there is a possible fix. President Obama needs to replace Vice President Biden with someone who will run the entire Domestic portfolio. He must be able to wrangle Congress, and know how to streamline our government and catalyze job creation. He must be confrontational, decisive and impolite, but most of all, he needs to totally resonate with "regular people."

I think that person is Ross Perot.

remember who you are

Henry Ford once said, “Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.”

Ford's planned auto-innovations will enable cars to run apps, read your Twitter feed to you, let you update your Facebook status, and surf the web, all while driving! Ford executive Sue Cischke: “Telling younger people not to use a cellphone is almost like saying, ‘Don’t breathe.’”

We know that texting while driving is more dangerous than being drunk or stoned, and yet Ford, in their quest to be "with it" have chosen to pander to kitsch ["Cischke" <--> "kitsch"?] and actually enable distracted driving to win younger buyers - now there's a strategy - let’s proactively help young drivers "stop breathing...” - not sure this is the path to repeat business.

In talking to high-tech C-level executives, I know they are desperate for strategies to help "connect with the consumer." This despite the fact that most of their revenue comes from corporate clients, whose values and priorities are decidedly not-consumer. Corporations (and older people) are interested in function, economic value, predictability and vendor stability; young consumers are interested in form, social value, creativity, and “new.”

So why are large corporations like Ford and others desperate to be hip when their real (paying) customers value the opposite?

In the old days, for costly items like trucks or computers, it was easier to get corporations to buy - they had more money to spend, there were fewer of them (easier to sell/market to a smaller segment), and they could write off the costs of these purchases, making them even cheaper. Whereas the consumer had less money, was much harder to reach, and didn't have the tax advantage. The barriers to entry were lower at the office.

Today corporate customers are extending the lifecycle of hard goods like cars and PCs; they’re reluctant to deplete their cash reserves; and they’re negotiating when they do buy. None of these problems exist in the home, and more specifically, in the minds of new buyers. The barriers to entry are now lower at home and with younger people.

Their example is Apple, who has seen non-corporate, young-consumer sales also drive adult and business purchase behavior. But their “cool” comes from an uncompromising commitment to the product and its design. This priority is why people buy, and why they can command a premium price in tough times. It is also what justifies the "adult" decision.

Executives at Ford (and many high tech companies) are glomming onto social media in the belief that being Twitter/Facebook-enabled associates them with youth and “cool,” and winningyoung and hip customers, leads to “adult” sales as well. This is just badly-executed imitation.

It feels like Ford (and other) executives no longer believe they can “do a thing,” and desperate to remain relevant, are vainly grasping at social networking straws in the hopes that that becomes their new killer feature. 

They should know better. Marketing and random features don't compensate for bad decisions and weak products.

The first step is simple - be clear about your “why” - once you know why you exist - what your fundamental purpose is, then the what and the how become much clearer. There is no doubt about Apple's "why." I fear that companies like Ford have gotten so pendulous that their “why” is lost somewhere in the folds of their quadruple chin.

Instead of enabling distracted driving, get on a treadmill, and work off the fat (high priced consultants, MBAs, etc.) that has caused you to misplace who you really are.

inhumanity

What do the June riots in Vancouver have in common with this week's events in London? This Independent article posted by a good friend made me see things in a whole new light.

Each riot was sparked by an event - the Canucks losing the Stanley Cup, and a black man killed by the police in a way that raised the community's suspicions. The rioters in both cases are young (teens and early 20s) people. The police are not designed for, and ill-equipped to quell riots and prevent innocent people and local buildings/stores from being harmed.

[ASIDE: Domestic police forces ought not be militias, armed to the teeth, and bent on suppressing the citizenry; this assume-the-worst-of-our-people attitude is a self-fulfilling prophecy.]

There's one other thing the countries have in common: while both invest heavily in, and are reputed to have excellent public education systems, their schools are becoming increasingly mechanistic and factory-like. Success is measured by test scores; effectiveness is based on numeric data; and students are viewed as numbers (vs. humans), and assumed to be cheaters and prone to bad behavior, read: mistrusted.

In good times, economic success can overcome these failings, but with increased unemployment and more people falling below the poverty line, no-one is present to model a "peaceful national character and an accepted moral outlook" or the idea of civility for young people. Parents are too busy making ends meet, and there are few "good" influences in the media, or in our increasingly aloof neighborhoods.

Their most formative experiences happen whilst in school, and if the "texture" of that experience is "you'll be held back if you don't do well on the tests"; "we know you're a truant or are cheating and we will catch you"; and being treated as a data point and not a person, how do we expect them to grow into anything but disenfranchised young adults, who when presented with an opportunity to rebel against "the man" will gleefully take it?? This BBC interview of two young British rioters is a classic example of the result.

Why doesn't this happen as much in America (which has an even more mistrustful public education system)? I think it's because the local police forces are more violent and better armed.

[ASIDE: Domestic militia can discourage violence, but at what cost? Prime Minister Cameron just said, "There are pockets of our society that are not only broken, but frankly sick...It is a complete lack of responsibility in parts of our society, people allowed to feel that the world owes them something." His remarks are political peacocking, and by weaponizing his police forces, he creates an even greater rift with the citizenry. Being 'tough on crime' is a failed strategy, as evidenced in America, which boasts the highest percentage of incarcerations on the planet, but no corresponding reduction in crime.]

It is regrettable that politicians can't focus on root causes. In all three (and many other) countries, our children are victims of an increasingly dehumanized education system. The powers that manage (districts, departments/ministries of education, etc.) and influence (Gates, etc. Foundations) public schools are filled with too few real educators, and too many MBAs, whose training in micro-thinking leads to disastrous macro-outcomes.

"Take care of the little things, and the big things will take care of themselves" is a practice in most MBA programs (in their parlance: what gets measured gets done, just focus on optimizing your piece of the business), and is one of the worst things to happen to schools (and corporations) over the last generation. "Penny-wise and pound-foolish," or "missing the forest for the trees" are much more apt, but frequently ignored.

When you manage teachers based on their students' test scores, you demand that the teacher ignore the person in front of them, and focus ONLY on their preparation to answer a set of questions on a piece of paper. Learning is not a requirement; correct responses are.

More and more parents choose a school for their children based on test scores, in the mistaken belief that that's a "good education."

Is it at all surprising that young adults aggressively rebel when given the opportunity? Is it at all surprising that they have a diminished sense of civility and respect? Which adults treated them with civility and respect? What behaviors did their "models" exhibit towards them when they were most impressionable?

Learning is an inherently human act - the more you separate the person from their education, the less educated and "human" our younger generations will be.

The people to blame for the riots in Vancouver and London are not the kids (they are merely accountable), but rather the adults (parents and educators and policy makers) who created the education system in which they were dehumanized.

how can you be so obtuse?

Sound familiar? It will if you've seen The Shawshank Redemption, and recall when Andy Dufresne (protagonist) finds proof of his innocence, but Warden Norton (antagonist/scumbag) dismisses it. Andy "knows" he is innocent; the warden "knows" that all criminals are guilty. We are on Andy's side, and appalled that the warden doesn't even consider the possibility of innocence. In the end, the warden is vanquished and Dufresne is free, but both remain obstinately true to their beliefs.

I was reminded of this when reading The Science of Why We Don't Believe Science - a brilliant analysis on the strength of our belief systems, and why persuasion is so difficult. Psychologists use the term cognitive dissonance to explain it - when we are faced with conflicting ideas, we "reposition" things to reduce the discomfort. Like when justifying an expensive purchase - "Sure this is an expensive car, but that's because it's well-engineered, safer, and will last so much longer than that cheap clunker you just bought - you get what you pay for."

Unprovoked, most of us are somewhat open-minded, but when pushed, we forsake reasonable for defensive and obstinate, and that leads to bad decision-making.

As American politics kicks into gear for the 2012 elections, apparently *every* politician feels pushed and under siege, and none are capable of making good decisions. The abject disinterest in governing has never been more present than during the recent debt ceiling and FAA debacles. The good of the nation is/was forsaken for the good of the Party or the individual politician.

Why? Because politics is a zero-sum game - there is only one winner. It used to be that candidates would campaign on the merits of their vision, their ideas, talk about who they were as a person, and "may the best (wo)man win." But as politics has "evolved," they've discovered that it is much easier to make your opponent(s) lose than it is to show why you should win. Rather than being the best candidate, it's about being the one with the best opposition research and counter-marketing.

Bizarrely, this new breed of politician's cognitive dissonance causes them to actually believe that integrity and good is about partisan one-upmanship and not about service and governing.

How can they be so obtuse?

On Friday Standard & Poor's lowered America's credit rating from AAA to AA+; their analysis wasn't based on numbers (i.e. is America actually a trusted investment), but rather on the politics - can Congress and the White House stop the posturing and juvenile finger-pointing, and focus on running the country?

Is this a reasonable basis for judging credit-worthiness? Will a loan officer at a bank decide to lend money to a couple based on the numbers, or on whether they keep bickering all the time? I'm sure the bickering should be a factor, but am not convinced it is the ONLY factor.

How can they be so obtuse?

Having said this, the reaction so far from both the White House and Congress is partisan drivel. The ONLY thing politicians are capable of is showing how the other side is to blame for everything that's bad, and how they are righteous and good (there is no pressure to talk about compromise, leadership or governing). If immaturity and petulance were the only factors, America should receive a rating below that of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain - maybe closer to that of Syria or North Korea.

A strength of democracy is that the fringes are attenuated by the center; and that effective partisanship impedes government overreach. A weakness of democracy is that it is possible for enough of the electorate to be swayed in the moment, that the most fringe voices are rewarded, and the more honorable and insightful are ignored.

Today the American public is as polarized as her politicians, no-one is considering the ramifications of the downgrade or our economic state, instead we are each bent on making sure everyone knows how screwed up the other side is, and how we'd be better off if they didn't exist. This is our cognitive dissonance, founded on our deepened commitment to the votes we've cast.

How can we be so obtuse? 

"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things; and no good thing ever dies." These are the last words spoken by Andy Dufresne in The Shawshank Redemption.

Does good come out of bad? I hope so. Has American been harmed enough by our politicians' failings to demand and expect more from ourselves than angry sound bytes? Not yet, but perhaps soon.

I was listening to a show on NPR asking, "What is life?" I agreed with the NASA definition - life exists when there is procreation and evolution. I was talking to a friend later about the unasked question, "What is humanity?" I think humanity exists when there is empathy and aspiration.

Survival requires community - we must have more empathy for our brothers and sisters, because the community prevails when the least among us survives and thrives. Success requires ability and desire - we must make our children more capable than we are, and we must imbue in them a desire and urgency to be greater than their parents.

Out of all that has happened recently, my hope is that we overcome our cognitive dissonance, and resurrect our humanity.