revelations

I found this fascinating animation of the history of religion across the globe (click "Play" below). Hinduism began 5,000 years ago, followed by Judaism, Buddhism, Christianity and then Islam, which came into being in 570AD.

Some observations:

1. Five major religions cover the globe, the youngest of which is fifteen centuries old.
2. Despite all "modern" claims of "Internet time," etc., no new religions have spawned or spread for quite a while.
3. The two most populous and fastest-growing nations on the planet essentially have their own religions, but neither of their religions is bent on "evangelical expansion."
4. The smallest (by population and geography) is Judaism, and the largest is Christianity.

Historically, the spread of religion occurred through conquest and evangelism/missionary work. During this time, some of the religions competed (and combated) with each other to win followers, but at some point it seems a detente of sorts was achieved, creating a relatively steady state. (This is not to say that peace broke out, but that the geographic distribution has remained largely the same.)

In 888 (a fortuitous year!), block printing was invented; movable (clay) type arrived in 1041; and then Gutenberg came along in the 1440s. By the end of that century (1499), an estimated 15 million (mostly religious) books had been printed. The most famous of these of course is the Gutenberg Bible, which among other religious texts (like the Koran), helped promote and proliferate Christianity and Islam through the centuries that followed.

Four hundred years later, communication changed - beginning with the telegraph, followed 30 years later by the telephone, and eventually with wireless telephony and the Internet. Despite this increase in publishing capacity and reach, the big five have remained relatively static. Until now. I believe the next decade will see the rise of an altogether new type of religion, one more connected to the e-world.

Atheism is not a religion (by definition); they would say that their "faith" is science and logic, and that they are not evangelical. Today most Atheists are individuals without affiliation; but with the likes of Richard Dawkins, I believe a movement is forming, and its leaders (will) wish to establish a widespread sociopolitical force with structure, membership, meeting venues, corporate sponsorship, etc.

They could choose a political approach. While compelling, I don't believe the ROI is interesting - too much work for relatively little gain. I think they will instead choose the non-political tack, and like the big 5, use the strength and size of their base as clout to affect social and political change. Does this make them a "religion"? I think so - here's a paragraph from Wikipedia's article on religion (I've highlighted in blue the text that I believe applies to Atheism the religion):

Religion is often described as a communal system for the coherence of belief focusing on a system of thought, unseen being, person, or object, that is considered to be supernatural, sacred, divine, or of the highest truth. Moral codes, practices, values, institutions, tradition, rituals, and scriptures are often traditionally associated with the core belief, and these may have some overlap with concepts in secular philosophy. Religion is also often described as a "way of life" or a life stance.

New religions have historically formed in "space," gaining traction among those who had not yet encountered religion. Today fundamentalists in Christianity (American religious right, Tea Party, etc.) and Islam (Al Qaeda, Taliban, etc.) are a polarizing force; there is enough concern about this in the minds of their moderates (and especially the younger generations), that Atheism could be a viable alternative. Differences on issues like personal freedom, selective accountability, abortion, gay rights, women's rights, the use of violence, etc. just might be enough to tip the balance in favor of "defection."

The ideal for Atheism is morality and integrity founded on science and logic. Atheists will shirk terms like "believer" - instead I imagine them using a tag line like: "We don't believe; we are." But they will also struggle with the same issues that beset other religions or large organizations - how to create an effective and deserving leadership hierarchy, how to impose or enforce rules, and how to deliver value. Traditional religions deliver value in the form of answers to these three questions:

1. Why am I here?
2. What happens when I die?
3. Whom do I blame (corollary - who will absolve me?)?

Atheism does not view these questions the same way, so a new approach to value-creation will be needed, one that centers on the attributes above - morality, integrity, science and logic, but also one that gives those that are seeking an alternative a place to belong, where they can feel at home. If the leaders of Atheism can find this, I believe the next decade will host a new religion, and one that achieved critical mass by filling a void that the other five didn't realize was there.